Donald Robertson

But experts are often biased and they're particularly prone to committing the cherry picking fallacy. So they just pick out studies that support their pet theory. Whereas professional statisticians that don't have any skin in the game will just look at what all of the research says and be really kind of cast a cold eye over it.

But experts are often biased and they're particularly prone to committing the cherry picking fallacy. So they just pick out studies that support their pet theory. Whereas professional statisticians that don't have any skin in the game will just look at what all of the research says and be really kind of cast a cold eye over it.

But experts are often biased and they're particularly prone to committing the cherry picking fallacy. So they just pick out studies that support their pet theory. Whereas professional statisticians that don't have any skin in the game will just look at what all of the research says and be really kind of cast a cold eye over it.

you know, I, and they'll say, no, this is what the research actually shows. This guy is just telling you what half of the research says, you know, because it supports his theory and experts in a field, or if you want to put it another way, people that are really invested in certain theories that have been doing it for a long time can be biased. Right.

you know, I, and they'll say, no, this is what the research actually shows. This guy is just telling you what half of the research says, you know, because it supports his theory and experts in a field, or if you want to put it another way, people that are really invested in certain theories that have been doing it for a long time can be biased. Right.

you know, I, and they'll say, no, this is what the research actually shows. This guy is just telling you what half of the research says, you know, because it supports his theory and experts in a field, or if you want to put it another way, people that are really invested in certain theories that have been doing it for a long time can be biased. Right.

And so their, their version of things can be quite distorted, but, um,

And so their, their version of things can be quite distorted, but, um,

And so their, their version of things can be quite distorted, but, um,

I think the other difficulty I wanted to mention to you in terms of this idea of getting information from experts and becoming kind of passive rather than depending on our own reason, there's another piece of research that's very influential in state-of-the-art, like modern behavioral psychology, which shows there's a problem with something called role-governed behavior.

I think the other difficulty I wanted to mention to you in terms of this idea of getting information from experts and becoming kind of passive rather than depending on our own reason, there's another piece of research that's very influential in state-of-the-art, like modern behavioral psychology, which shows there's a problem with something called role-governed behavior.

I think the other difficulty I wanted to mention to you in terms of this idea of getting information from experts and becoming kind of passive rather than depending on our own reason, there's another piece of research that's very influential in state-of-the-art, like modern behavioral psychology, which shows there's a problem with something called role-governed behavior.

so if you get two groups of participants in a study and you teach them how to solve some you give them you give them a puzzle they have to solve like pressing three buttons in a particular order or whatever and if they get it right they get reward if they get it wrong like maybe you know they get some punishment a buzzer goes off or something like that they lose points or whatever right and in one group

so if you get two groups of participants in a study and you teach them how to solve some you give them you give them a puzzle they have to solve like pressing three buttons in a particular order or whatever and if they get it right they get reward if they get it wrong like maybe you know they get some punishment a buzzer goes off or something like that they lose points or whatever right and in one group

so if you get two groups of participants in a study and you teach them how to solve some you give them you give them a puzzle they have to solve like pressing three buttons in a particular order or whatever and if they get it right they get reward if they get it wrong like maybe you know they get some punishment a buzzer goes off or something like that they lose points or whatever right and in one group

You just give them oral or written instructions that say this is how you solve the puzzle. The other group, they have to figure it out through trial and error, right? This is phase one of the experiment. In phase two, so they do it repeatedly. In phase two, the rules that govern the success change without telling them, right? So they have to adapt, basically.

You just give them oral or written instructions that say this is how you solve the puzzle. The other group, they have to figure it out through trial and error, right? This is phase one of the experiment. In phase two, so they do it repeatedly. In phase two, the rules that govern the success change without telling them, right? So they have to adapt, basically.

You just give them oral or written instructions that say this is how you solve the puzzle. The other group, they have to figure it out through trial and error, right? This is phase one of the experiment. In phase two, so they do it repeatedly. In phase two, the rules that govern the success change without telling them, right? So they have to adapt, basically.

You create a circumstance where they have to adapt. One group had been verbally given the rule or solution. The other group had to figure it out through trial and error. The group that have learned the rule verbally will keep trying it even though it's not working. Whereas the group that had to figure it out themselves will adapt much more quickly.

You create a circumstance where they have to adapt. One group had been verbally given the rule or solution. The other group had to figure it out through trial and error. The group that have learned the rule verbally will keep trying it even though it's not working. Whereas the group that had to figure it out themselves will adapt much more quickly.