Doug Irwin

So the similarity between Trump's proposals and Smoot-Hawley depends a little bit on which Trump proposals you consider. If we're just talking about the special tariffs on Mexico and Canada, that's not really a Smoot-Hawley scenario. But if we're talking about the 10 or 20 percent across the board tariffs, that's in the ballpark of a real Smoot-Hawley increase.

So the similarity between Trump's proposals and Smoot-Hawley depends a little bit on which Trump proposals you consider. If we're just talking about the special tariffs on Mexico and Canada, that's not really a Smoot-Hawley scenario. But if we're talking about the 10 or 20 percent across the board tariffs, that's in the ballpark of a real Smoot-Hawley increase.

Most people avoid economists at parties because we're known to be not exactly the most scintillating of personalities. But all of a sudden, my phone is ringing once again asking about historical analogies and what's going on with tariffs today and what the prospective impact might be. So my holiday is over.

Most people avoid economists at parties because we're known to be not exactly the most scintillating of personalities. But all of a sudden, my phone is ringing once again asking about historical analogies and what's going on with tariffs today and what the prospective impact might be. So my holiday is over.

Most people avoid economists at parties because we're known to be not exactly the most scintillating of personalities. But all of a sudden, my phone is ringing once again asking about historical analogies and what's going on with tariffs today and what the prospective impact might be. So my holiday is over.