Doug O'Loughlin

And I think the place that we're seeing, like our business is very focused on like kind of seeing where

uh ai impacts chips and semiconductors hence semi-analysis right and we think the biggest bottleneck in the market right now today is memory and that's just because there's so much demand and there's so little supply and the supply response takes often 18 24 months and we're you know i think we're six to 12 months in into that so we have at least 12 months before more supply comes online

Well, this is where memory stocks are kind of like a whole, you know, a whole like 40 chess altogether.

Because what happens is stocks are very, very forward looking, right?

And the thing that really matters is right now, every day, the stocks have been ripping on the fact that spot or contract price effectively has been going up.

Now, what's going to happen is that's going to continue to happen until there is real fungible, like a real supply response.

And so we just don't see it until the first half of 27.

We think that memory prices will continue to go up.

quite meaningfully into the rest of this year and then in the first half of 27 we expect a meaningful amount of supply to come online and we just don't think that cross is going to happen historically what happens is when the first um supply starts to come online the stocks tank there's no other way to put it right going up uh this amount of uh this like you know precipitously is often not sustainable and i think everyone in the industry would tell you

every everyone understands this is not a sustainable price and this this just takes capitalism to fix it right supply will react to demand but at this exact moment we're at this like crazy parabolic thing um and i think right now we see no reason that memory prices won't continue to rip for the rest of the year and so that's kind of like the

right that's how you think about it is i would expect them to continue to do well but maybe not the past rate they've done well especially out of the worst cycle of all time into the best cycle of all time that kind of inflection is usually where the socks go crazy um how i think about it actually if we're talking about like from pure soft perspective if you um

if you think about like nvidia's giant year two years ago right when nvidia uh the stock went up like you know i don't i don't know the numbers off my head and then last year honestly nvidia did outperform the market meaningfully but we're talking 35 40 percent right meaningfully above the market but not quite as much i think some of that inflated expectation is going to come out now that obviously doesn't mean the stocks are going down in fact i'm very bullish but i don't expect the same setup going forward

Yes.

Thank you for having me.