Downtown Josh Brown
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And then there's systemic.
And again, when you idiosyncratically focus on a couple of companies, you could fall prey to the fact that, you know, we'll see.
Will the CapEx estimates come to fruition?
Will the free cash flow not be there?
Or will revenues actually grow, you know, in addition to what you think?
Or maybe they'll figure out other ways to generate free cash flow, which we've seen in the past.
But you're not seeing that for the aggregate of the technology index.
So they've grown free cash flow above CapEx for the better part of 20 years.
So the recent hookup is still – we're still, from an aggregate sector perspective, underspending in terms of CapEx relative to free cash flow.
Well, don't you think maybe it's just because that's what we lived through?
Meaning that there hasn't been a CapEx cycle in so long.
Correct.
CapEx bubble.
Oh, for sure.
I'd say like, again, back to that sort of data.
If you say a CapEx recovery is when you're spending CapEx relative to your sales base and the opposite, most CapEx cycles actually generate growth.
rather than create a bubble that deters it.
So, I mean, if you think about it just in the basic, like the virtuous cycle of the US economy, when corporate America sees growth and spends for growth, they create growth by spending, creating jobs.
So it's in some ways, it reflects the durability of the cycle.
Oh, absolutely.