Downtown Josh Brown

Like, we got this with tariffs originally, you know, last year when people were like – and I had a lot of diversified portfolio managers come to me and say –

Denise, this is a very uncertain environment.

In an uncertain environment, corporate America is not going to spend.

If they don't spend, jobs aren't going to grow.

And you say, okay, well, we can measure all of those things and we can see if that's true.

And the interesting part is when you quartile out uncertainty, the more uncertain the environment, the higher the odds of the stock market advancing.

And the higher the odds that corporate America hires and the higher the odds that there's capital spending.

Nobody.

But it's like the baron's head, like the covers.

It's by the time it is so visible, it is more likely than not already discounted.

Corporate America is already not spent.

Corporate America is already not hired.

The stock market has already worried about all the things that you're very visibly worrying about.

And I mean, to put a fine point on it, I don't remember if we talked about it last time, but remember, I mean, the low in the market between like 1976 and 1985 was 1978 before either of the recessions happened.

So if you said like, hey, Denise, I know what's going to happen.

We're going to have two back-to-back recessions and rates are going to go to 15%.

Nobody buys that.

But then if you said, like, I'm going to sell in 78.

I'm going to get this right.

I'm going to nail the risks.