Downtown Josh Brown

So nobody wanted to sell.

So it's acting like a supply shock.

If you look at core CPI X shelter, do you know what it was last quarter or last month?

2.3%.

Oh.

Right.

Yeah.

No, but I understand that they should care.

It's not about what the consumer feels.

This is about how the Fed should manage.

Right?

Those are different.

Right.

So the reason why you look at Core CPI—and we'll get into energy in a second—

But the reason why you look at core CPI is because if you're the Federal Reserve, you don't want to double down on supply shock, meaning that if oil acts like a tax hike, the last thing you want to do is add rates to mitigate something that you can't control anyway and make it worse.

Correct.

So that's why they look for CPI.

And the interesting part is, so when people are worried about higher rates this time and you say, well, OK, we can observe that rates are going higher.

But again, let's assume we don't know why.

So when you look at oil specifically and you chart it out, we have a great chart of this.