Downtown Josh Brown

I mean, it increases your odds to 65%.

I would say that, again, you got to go with the base cases.

Okay, so something changed in terms of the probabilities.

Let's be open-minded to the probabilities.

Then the question becomes, okay, let's say they're going to hike.

Do I care as an equity market investor?

And that's the unique data set, which is you find out really quickly.

Chart 15, Daniel.

Which is, it's not about, oh, we're going right to magnitude?

So let's talk.

I think it's interesting.

So if there is growth, you usually see in these middle two quintiles or quartiles of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates.

So these two quintiles are zero to 100, right?

So if you're hiking like 25 basis points and maybe 100 basis points over the course of four meetings over the course of a year,

Those are your market odds, right?

And there are higher odds of a market advance than baseline, right?

So baseline 75%.

And you would say, if I knew everything about what the Fed is going to do, whether they're cutting or hiking, what's my best probabilities?

It's the Fed hiking by just a little.

Correct.