Downtown Josh Brown

It's by the time it is so visible, it is more likely than not already discounted.

Corporate America is already not spent.

Corporate America is already not hired.

The stock market has already worried about all the things that you're very visibly worrying about.

And I mean, to put a fine point on it, I don't remember if we talked about it last time, but remember, I mean, the low in the market between like 1976 and 1985 was 1978 before either of the recessions happened.

So if you said like, hey, Denise, I know what's going to happen.

We're going to have two back-to-back recessions and rates are going to go to 15%.

Nobody buys that.

But then if you said, like, I'm going to sell in 78.

I'm going to get this right.

I'm going to nail the risks.

I'm going to get the risks right.

And I'm going to buy back at the end of 82 when jobs finally started to recover.

You lost 40% cumulative nominal returns.

Yeah.

So it's an interesting dynamic.

This is rare that you have this kind of multiple compression.

But if you go like reverse to when we started the year, I had a lot of people, you know, asking me just even from an institutional perspective, like, how can you be bullish on the market when the market is up so much over the last three years and stocks are expensive?

And the problem is, again, quantitatively, neither of those things bend your odds for underperformance of equities.

Right.