Downtown Josh Brown

They're not doing this randomly.

Because what the anomaly is, has been earnings growth.

So over the last two years, the price performance is less than the earnings growth have been for semiconductors as an industry over the last two years.

That's the anomaly.

They've never compounded earnings like this without being down 100% or not 100% and then up 100%.

But now this up trajectory, up let's call it more than 50%, has lasted more than two years.

That's the difference in history.

Well, I would say, so the trick with cyclical businesses, if they're cheap, that could be the peak in earnings.

So that's to your point.

If this is still a cyclical business, then valuation doesn't

Doesn't look from a probability perspective the way it currently looks for semiconductors, meaning that I have this linear relationship.

The cheaper the stocks are right now over the last 10 years, the more likely the stocks are to outperform.

Right.

So I think some of what we're seeing right now is a changing business.

Right.

We just talked about that in terms of earnings.

They've never compounded like this.

Now, whether or not like earnings is a peak, that part, I don't know.

But what I can say is that the valuation compression that we just saw, again, that two year stack in terms of the earnings growth, it's almost like a catch up trade.

And some of this valuation multiple is saying, look, I understand that there's a lot of fear in the market about what this might mean.