Dr. Adam Posen

What's your best bet there?

What's realistic is productivity growth stays up as high as it's now starting to trend, maybe even goes a little higher.

And unemployment shoots up in a couple of years, but doesn't shoot up enormously.

And it is disproportionately on younger people.

And that...

You get some decline in labor force participation because people figure out different ways of living their lives.

And so the unemployment number understates how many people feel displaced.

no um i think as economists you all are anchors you cover everything but as economists we've got to be a little bit modest that sometimes when people don't feel so good it's not about the economic numbers they may say it's about that but it's about their relative position in life it's about uncertainty it's about through an ideological lens is their party in power not in power are their kids

So it's not that people's feelings are unimportant, but obviously not.

They can vote.

They can choose.

But the connection, and there's very clear data on this, the connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous in terms of linking it to actual economic outcomes than it used to be.

That's interesting.

What I would say, Carol— We have to run, though.

Yeah, quick.

Yeah.

No, no, no.

Sorry.

Just to say that the global situation is similar to the U.S.

There's a lot of youth unemployment in China and in Europe, and that we got to think about.