Dr. Alan O'Sullivan

And if you're younger, then probably even something shorter.

And the problem really is that that's too little data.

And if anything, over last five to 10 year horizons, those types of histories tend to have mean reverting predictions for the future.

So high past returns tend to predict low future returns just when people are extrapolating based on that something positive.

And that's empirically quite a bad idea.

Yeah.

So I do think that the U.S.

versus non-U.S.

is one good poster boy of this rearview mirror mindset because it's so common for investors nowadays to think that U.S.

must always outperform because it outperformed in the post-GFC era.

And then you nicely reminded there what I was highlighted at.

It's not always true that the eradicates where U.S.

underperformed.

And then I sort of drill further into this post-GFC last 15-year period.

So after 2009, GFC, Global Financial Crisis, in case somebody is not familiar with the acronym.

Anyway, so that period really has seen U.S.

outperforming very steadily.

There have been a couple of hiccups, but overall U.S.

equities have beaten the rest of the world quite consistently.

And so it's sort of understandable that people might think that this is there forever.