Dr. Alan O'Sullivan

And I hope we don't go there.

Yeah, yeah, it is true.

So again, I highlighted earlier this or we highlighted this institution versus retail.

But when it comes to inflation expectations, economists and consumers can have differences and consumers do tend to have higher inflation expectations.

And you said Joe and Mary.

Mary actually has higher inflation expectations.

So there's some interesting research which says that it is related to the fact that

women still do more of the grocery shopping and grocery type of inflation.

Those repeated rises that you tend to get, they raise the female inflation expectation more than

more than the male ones do.

So there are some really interesting results when it comes to that.

But I think broadly speaking, still the story is that we have had this stable, even when it comes to retail, it hasn't been as well anchored, but it has, it's been relatively well anchored

until recently.

And now there are some signs that there could be that de-anchoring happening.

Time will tell whether this becomes important.

And the one thing which historic analysis has told me is that when I do the decomposition, I see that there was a very big high-term premium, like 3% in 1980s when inflation expectations were de-anchored.

So I think that was

primarily an inflation risk premium, which subsequently went to near zero when we had this 20 years of very stable near 2% inflation.

But the chance that we would get this extra inflation risk premium beyond inflation expectations, that's really something that I think hasn't been properly thought through by those who are playing with fire with Fed's independence and so on.

So again, term premium is sort of by definition, it is what's beyond expectations.