Dr. Bradley Thayer

They want to inflict pain on the Arab states.

And then by so doing, of course, that also reveals the cleavages, the tensions that exist between Sunni and Shia Arabs, Iranians largely Shia.

and between Persians and Arabs.

So Iran's efforts to hurt the U.S., to draw out the campaign and inflict pain on the Arabs is, to a degree, self-defeating because it's generating, at least at the elite level, support.

Another issue which needs to be addressed is that by attacking Azerbaijan, remember, 16% of the population of Iran is Azeri.

So by attacking Azerbaijan, you're opening up a window for Azerbaijan to reach out to essentially their population, the diaspora population in Iran.

Likewise for the Kurds.

So by Iran escalating,

And again, there's a logic to do that.

They're also complicating their strategic situation.

They're adding to their enemies, and they're adding to the might arranged against them.

Their calculus must be, at least with the Arabs, that there'll be a revolt, that at the mass level in the Gulf shakedoms, the people don't support the US, and they don't support this war, and they don't support essentially their governments.

Saddam Hussein attacked Israel, right, as a way to draw in the desert storm, Desert Shield in 91.

Saddam Hussein attacked Israel as a way to essentially break up the coalition, as well as attacking Saudi, as well as attacking the Gulf Sheikhdoms, Bahrain, very famously.

So, again, there's that military logic there.

But whether that's going to be successful or not is certainly very difficult to see.

Right.

Brad Thayer at Exxon, Bradley Thayer at Getter and Truth.

And so, Steve, you know, the major caveat is let's not turn this into a national conflict.

Let's not turn it into a war against the Persians, which is going to greatly complicate the conflict.