Dr. Bradley Thayer

So by attacking Azerbaijan, you're opening up a window for Azerbaijan to reach out to essentially their population, the diaspora population in Iran.

Likewise for the Kurds.

So by Iran escalating,

And again, there's a logic to do that.

They're also complicating their strategic situation.

They're adding to their enemies, and they're adding to the might arranged against them.

Their calculus must be, at least with the Arabs, that there'll be a revolt, that at the mass level in the Gulf shakedoms, the people don't support the US, and they don't support this war, and they don't support essentially their governments.

Saddam Hussein attacked Israel, right, as a way to draw in the desert storm, Desert Shield in 91.

Saddam Hussein attacked Israel as a way to essentially break up the coalition, as well as attacking Saudi, as well as attacking the Gulf Sheikhdoms, Bahrain, very famously.

So, again, there's that military logic there.

But whether that's going to be successful or not is certainly very difficult to see.

Right.

Brad Thayer at Exxon, Bradley Thayer at Getter and Truth.

And so, Steve, you know, the major caveat is let's not turn this into a national conflict.

Let's not turn it into a war against the Persians, which is going to greatly complicate the conflict.

Thank you, Steve.

Well, Steve, on that it's difficult to say.

It's a traditional war.

So the air war is going to be fought between the Iranians who want to preserve their assets, because once they emit their radars or once they fire a surface-to-air missile, for example,

There's going to be a response.