Dr. Kimberley Reid

We can actually model what the weather will do for those next few months.

And these long range forecasts that come from these, what we call seasonal models, take into account more than just El Nino.

So they take into account the Indian Ocean, the jet stream, the storm activity, the ocean temperatures around Australia to give this overall holistic picture of future forecasts.

So I think

Yes, in the past, looking at just what El Niño was doing was a key source of information for farmers who need to know what's going to happen a few months ahead.

But nowadays, we've got more sophisticated models that it's better to look at these long-range forecasts rather than just whether we're in El Niño or La Niña.

Yeah, so it's important to remember that even though an El Nino increases the chances of warmer than average temperatures, we also have the background warming that is increasing these chances of warmer than average temperatures.

So you have this add-on effect.

And what that means is that some of the impacts

from El Niño are likely to be enhanced because of that background warming, especially those impacts related to temperature.

The future changes to El Niño is still a hot topic for research, but the current research is indicating that we might see more swings between El Niño and La Niña and therefore more swings between dry years and wet years and fewer normal years.

But one key point I'd like to make is that a lot of the research into El Niño and climate change is done at the CSIRO.

And the recent research job cuts at CSIRO will make it harder for us to understand how El Niño may change in the future and how this may impact Australians.

A lot of scientists think that we are passing the 1.5 degree threshold at the moment.

So because that threshold is defined over a 20 year average period, a lot of climate scientists think we're in that 20 year part that will eventually exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.

With current policies, we are on track to exceed two degrees as well, which would lead to

impacts that would be very difficult to adapt to.

But every degree of warming that we can prevent is a win for humanity.

Every bit of carbon dioxide that we don't put into the atmosphere is a lower chance of extreme weather impacting us.

I mean, it's great to cut down on driving, catch public transport, ride your bike to work.