Dr. Marcel Dirsus

Yeah, and that's the risk, right? So it's extremely difficult now to find the right place for exile. Because really, let's take somebody like Assad, right? Assad is still a comparatively young guy. So he doesn't just need safety now. He's going to need it potentially for multiple decades. And he needs to find a country that is strong enough, first of all, to physically protect him.

Because Assad has probably made more enemies than just about anyone on earth. So now that he's left the country, his enemies didn't just disappear into thin air. There's still plenty of people that want him dead. So the first question is just physical protection. The second question is, you need to find a country that is strong enough to withstand pressure to give you up. Because like you say...

Because Assad has probably made more enemies than just about anyone on earth. So now that he's left the country, his enemies didn't just disappear into thin air. There's still plenty of people that want him dead. So the first question is just physical protection. The second question is, you need to find a country that is strong enough to withstand pressure to give you up. Because like you say...

Because Assad has probably made more enemies than just about anyone on earth. So now that he's left the country, his enemies didn't just disappear into thin air. There's still plenty of people that want him dead. So the first question is just physical protection. The second question is, you need to find a country that is strong enough to withstand pressure to give you up. Because like you say...

People will come and they will say, look, give us this guy and in return you get this or whatever. And the other thing is, like I said, you need it for an extended period of time. And I think this could be what ultimately might be the end of Assad. Because what you're betting on is that Russia is going to be stable for two decades, maybe three decades, depending on how long he has to live.

People will come and they will say, look, give us this guy and in return you get this or whatever. And the other thing is, like I said, you need it for an extended period of time. And I think this could be what ultimately might be the end of Assad. Because what you're betting on is that Russia is going to be stable for two decades, maybe three decades, depending on how long he has to live.

People will come and they will say, look, give us this guy and in return you get this or whatever. And the other thing is, like I said, you need it for an extended period of time. And I think this could be what ultimately might be the end of Assad. Because what you're betting on is that Russia is going to be stable for two decades, maybe three decades, depending on how long he has to live.

Now, would I bet that, knowing what we know about Russian history, knowing what we know about the Russian political system? I'm not sure. Obviously, now it seems that Putin is firmly in power. He's not going to leave. The country is not going to turn into a democracy. There's not going to be some sort of civil conflict. But we don't know.

Now, would I bet that, knowing what we know about Russian history, knowing what we know about the Russian political system? I'm not sure. Obviously, now it seems that Putin is firmly in power. He's not going to leave. The country is not going to turn into a democracy. There's not going to be some sort of civil conflict. But we don't know.

Now, would I bet that, knowing what we know about Russian history, knowing what we know about the Russian political system? I'm not sure. Obviously, now it seems that Putin is firmly in power. He's not going to leave. The country is not going to turn into a democracy. There's not going to be some sort of civil conflict. But we don't know.

So it could be that in five years Putin dies, the country turns into a democracy. It could be that in five years Putin dies and there's a conflict within the regime and the next person didn't make that promise. And they might prioritize the relationship to Damascus over this guy that really doesn't really hold any chips anymore. So it's always been super challenging.

So it could be that in five years Putin dies, the country turns into a democracy. It could be that in five years Putin dies and there's a conflict within the regime and the next person didn't make that promise. And they might prioritize the relationship to Damascus over this guy that really doesn't really hold any chips anymore. So it's always been super challenging.

So it could be that in five years Putin dies, the country turns into a democracy. It could be that in five years Putin dies and there's a conflict within the regime and the next person didn't make that promise. And they might prioritize the relationship to Damascus over this guy that really doesn't really hold any chips anymore. So it's always been super challenging.

And the problem for dictators now is, is that democracies are much less likely to agree to exile. So during the Cold War, it used to be that if you were France's dictator, or if you were America's dictator, you'd be able to flee to Hawaii or the Mediterranean coast. But as you said, that's now much less likely. I think there are trade-offs everywhere, right?

And the problem for dictators now is, is that democracies are much less likely to agree to exile. So during the Cold War, it used to be that if you were France's dictator, or if you were America's dictator, you'd be able to flee to Hawaii or the Mediterranean coast. But as you said, that's now much less likely. I think there are trade-offs everywhere, right?

And the problem for dictators now is, is that democracies are much less likely to agree to exile. So during the Cold War, it used to be that if you were France's dictator, or if you were America's dictator, you'd be able to flee to Hawaii or the Mediterranean coast. But as you said, that's now much less likely. I think there are trade-offs everywhere, right?

So just as dictators have to make trade-offs in order to stay in power, we have to make trade-offs in dealing with them. And one of these trade-offs is this question of exile. So obviously, you don't want somebody like Assad to go free. You want them to be held accountable for all the terrible things he's done.

So just as dictators have to make trade-offs in order to stay in power, we have to make trade-offs in dealing with them. And one of these trade-offs is this question of exile. So obviously, you don't want somebody like Assad to go free. You want them to be held accountable for all the terrible things he's done.

So just as dictators have to make trade-offs in order to stay in power, we have to make trade-offs in dealing with them. And one of these trade-offs is this question of exile. So obviously, you don't want somebody like Assad to go free. You want them to be held accountable for all the terrible things he's done.

Absolutely a bad guy. And I can totally understand that impulse. The trade-off that you make here, though, is the more difficult you make it for these types of leaders to flee, the more of an incentive you give them to try to stay in power.