Dr. Paul Offit

That's never been a pandemic because it doesn't, we're discussing this at our FDA vaccine advisory committees, H5, and they're discussing it at CDC advisory committees too, but it's, there are flu pandemics, which occur several times a century, two or three times a century. And It's always H1, H2, or H3. It's never been H5 or H7, H9.

That's never been a pandemic because it doesn't, we're discussing this at our FDA vaccine advisory committees, H5, and they're discussing it at CDC advisory committees too, but it's, there are flu pandemics, which occur several times a century, two or three times a century. And It's always H1, H2, or H3. It's never been H5 or H7, H9.

And the reason is that those viruses have never learned, the H5 and H7 viruses and H9, have never learned to bind to cells in our upper respiratory tract.

And the reason is that those viruses have never learned, the H5 and H7 viruses and H9, have never learned to bind to cells in our upper respiratory tract.

And the reason is that those viruses have never learned, the H5 and H7 viruses and H9, have never learned to bind to cells in our upper respiratory tract.

Yeah, so they can bind in the lower respiratory tract. So if you get enough virus down into your lower respiratory tract, you can get pneumonia and die. I mean, the mortality rate with H5 virus is like 50%. It's not trivial. And we've had almost 1,000 cases over the last 20 years or so.

Yeah, so they can bind in the lower respiratory tract. So if you get enough virus down into your lower respiratory tract, you can get pneumonia and die. I mean, the mortality rate with H5 virus is like 50%. It's not trivial. And we've had almost 1,000 cases over the last 20 years or so.

Yeah, so they can bind in the lower respiratory tract. So if you get enough virus down into your lower respiratory tract, you can get pneumonia and die. I mean, the mortality rate with H5 virus is like 50%. It's not trivial. And we've had almost 1,000 cases over the last 20 years or so.

But until that virus learns to reproduce, normally the way it works is the virus reproduces itself in the upper respiratory tract, it amplifies, then it goes down to the lower respiratory tract, then it causes pneumonia.

But until that virus learns to reproduce, normally the way it works is the virus reproduces itself in the upper respiratory tract, it amplifies, then it goes down to the lower respiratory tract, then it causes pneumonia.

But until that virus learns to reproduce, normally the way it works is the virus reproduces itself in the upper respiratory tract, it amplifies, then it goes down to the lower respiratory tract, then it causes pneumonia.

So if it doesn't replicate well in the upper respiratory tract, you're not going to shed the virus particularly well, and you're not going to have human-to-human transfer, and therefore it's not going to be a pandemic.

So if it doesn't replicate well in the upper respiratory tract, you're not going to shed the virus particularly well, and you're not going to have human-to-human transfer, and therefore it's not going to be a pandemic.

So if it doesn't replicate well in the upper respiratory tract, you're not going to shed the virus particularly well, and you're not going to have human-to-human transfer, and therefore it's not going to be a pandemic.

Right, and that's what made it so frightening. Anybody could kill you when you're walking down the street.

Right, and that's what made it so frightening. Anybody could kill you when you're walking down the street.

Right, and that's what made it so frightening. Anybody could kill you when you're walking down the street.

Right, well, that's why SARS-1 and MERS were never a problem. Exactly. Because when you got that, you were really sick. There really wasn't asymptomatic.

Right, well, that's why SARS-1 and MERS were never a problem. Exactly. Because when you got that, you were really sick. There really wasn't asymptomatic.

Right, well, that's why SARS-1 and MERS were never a problem. Exactly. Because when you got that, you were really sick. There really wasn't asymptomatic.