Drew Dowall

Both Iran and the U.S.

are talking tough out front and with a lot of threats going back and forth.

What we had understood is that in the background, there are actually exchanges of messages and some level of engagement that could form the basis for negotiations.

But, you know, right now, the situation in the Strait has come to the fore.

Iran is insisting that the blockade be dropped before it comes to the table.

The risk is that as this goes on and both sides take provocative steps like boarding each other's ships or pulling ships into quarantine, that someone could take a military action that then escalates.

It's not as dangerous as the outright war was, but it's still fraught and still a significant issue for the global economy, which depends heavily on Persian Gulf oil supplies.