Dwarkesh Patel

Now you have Cloud Code, Cursor, and Copilot with around similar revenue, around a billion, and then Codex is catching up around 700, 800 million.

So the question is across all the services that Microsoft has access to, what is the advantage that Microsoft's equivalence of Copilot have?

Yeah.

I guess the reason to focus on this question is that it's not just about GitHub, but fundamentally about Office and all the other software that Microsoft offers, which is that one vision you could have about how AI proceeds is that

look, the models are going to keep being hobbled, and you'll need this direct, visible observability all the time.

And another vision is, over time, these models can, now they're doing tasks that take two minutes.

In the future, they'll be doing tasks that take 10, 30 minutes.

In the future, maybe they're doing days worth of work autonomously.

And then the model companies are charging thousands of dollars, maybe, for access to really a coworker.

which could use any UI to communicate with their human and so forth and migrate between platforms.

So if we were getting closer to that, why aren't the model companies that are just getting more and more profitable the ones that are taking all the margin?

Why is the place where the scaffolding happens, which becomes less and less relevant as AI has become more capable, going to be that important?

And that goes to Office as it exists now versus coworkers that are just doing knowledge work autonomously.

That's a great point.

I have so many questions about the other things you mentioned.

But before we move on to those topics, I still wonder whether this is not forward-looking on AI capabilities, where you're imagining models like they exist today, where, yeah, it takes a screenshot of your screen, but it can't look inside each cell and what the formula is.

And I think the better mental model here is, just imagine that these models actually will be able to actually use a computer

As well as a human.

A human knowledge worker who is using Excel can look into the formulas, can use alternative software, can migrate data between Office 365 and another piece of software if the migration is necessary, etc.

That's what I'm saying.