Dwarkesh Patel

I get that there's a spectrum and I get that there won't be a specific moment that feels like we've achieved it.

But you've got to give a year in which like that, your median estimate of when that happens.

I'm just going to do binary search until I get a year.

Okay.

So it's less than 10 years.

So more than five years?

Your median estimate.

I know it's like a different range.

I think five is a good median.

Okay.

Five years.

So if you can fully autonomously run a house, then I think you've like – you can fully autonomously do most blue-collar work.

So your estimate is in five years it should be able to do most like blue-collar work in the economy.

I mean, separate from the question of whether people will get fired or not, a different question is like what will the economic impact be in five years?

Yeah.

The reason I'm curious about this is with LLMs,

the relationship between the revenues for these models to their inherent, their seeming capability has been sort of mysterious in the sense that, like, you have something which feels like AGI.

You can have a conversation where there really, like, is, like, you know, like, passes a soaring test.

It really feels like it can do all this knowledge work.

It's obviously doing a bunch of coding, et cetera.