Dwarkesh Patel

At least not some obvious flywheel for the model companies where now Claude is learning how to do every single job in the economy or GPT is learning how to do every single job in the economy.

So why doesn't that flywheel work for LLMs?

Do you think it'll be easier for robotics or just that like this, the state of this kind of techniques to label data that you collect out in the world and use it as a reward will just, the sort of like, the whole wave will rise and robotics will rise as well?

Or is there some reason robotics will be, will benefit more from this?

Yeah.

So, okay, in one year we have robots which are, like, doing some useful things.

Maybe if you have some, like,

relatively simple loopy process, they can do it for you.

You've got to keep folding thousands of boxes or something.

But then there's some flywheel, dot, dot, dot.

There's some machine which will just run my house for me, as well as a human housekeeper would.

What is the gap between this thing, which will be deployed in a year, that starts the flywheel, and this thing, which is a fully autonomous housekeeper?

I get that there's a spectrum and I get that there won't be a specific moment that feels like we've achieved it.

But you've got to give a year in which like that, your median estimate of when that happens.

I'm just going to do binary search until I get a year.

Okay.

So it's less than 10 years.

So more than five years?

Your median estimate.

I know it's like a different range.