Dwarkesh Patel

Where LLMs are right now in terms of the share of knowledge work they can do, which is,

It's, I guess, probably like one, one thousandth of the knowledge work that happens in the economy LLMs are doing, at least in terms of revenue.

Are you saying like that fraction will be possible for robots but for physical work in five years?

Because the human can label what's happening?

Interesting.

So I got to go to LabelBox and see the robotics setup and try operating some of the robots myself.

Okay, so operating ended up being a bit harder than I anticipated.

But I did get to see the LabelBox team rip through a bunch of tasks.

I also got to see the output data that labs actually have to use to train their robots and asked Manu, LabelBox's CEO, about how all of this is packaged together.

Labelbox can get you millions of episodes of robotics data for every single robotics platform and subtasks that you want to train on.

And if you reach out through labelbox.com slash thwarkash, Manu will be very happy with me.

In terms of robotics progress, why won't it be like self-driving cars where we – it's been more than 10 years since Google launched its – wasn't it 2009 that they launched the self-driving car initiative?

And then I remember when I was a teenager like watching demos where we would go buy a Taco Bell –

and drive back.

And only now do we have them actually deployed.

And even then, you know, they may make mistakes, et cetera.

And so maybe it'll be many more years before most of the cars are self-driving.

So why wouldn't robotics, you know, you're saying five years to this, like, quite robust thing, but actually it'll just feel like 20 years of just, like...

Once we get the cool demo in five years, then it'll be another 10 years before we have the Waymo and the Tesla FSD working.

So for years using, I mean, not since 2009, but we've had lots of video data, language data, and transformers for five, seven, eight years.