Dwarkesh

Humanity's great advantage has been social learning, our ability to pass knowledge across generations and build upon it.

But human social learning has a terrible handicap.

Biological brains don't allow information to be copy-pasted.

So you need to spend years, and in many cases decades, teaching people what they need to know in order to do their job.

or consider how clustering talent in cities and top firms produces such outsized benefits, simply because it lowers the friction of knowledge flow between individuals.

Future AI firms will accelerate this cultural evolution.

With millions of AGIs, automated firms get so many more opportunities to produce innovations and improvements, whether from lucky mistakes, deliberate experiments, de novo inventions, or some combination.

Historical data going back thousands of years suggests that population size is the key input for how fast your society comes up with more ideas.

AI firms will have population sizes that are orders of magnitude larger than today's biggest companies.

And each AI will be able to perfectly mind meld with every other.

AI firms will look from the outside like a unified intelligence that can instantly propagate ideas across the organization, preserving their full fidelity and context.

Every bit of tacit knowledge from millions of copies gets perfectly preserved, shared, and given due consideration.

So what becomes expensive in this world?

Roles which justify massive amounts of inference compute.

The CEO function is perhaps the clearest example.

Would it be worth it for Apple to spend $100 billion annually on inference compute for Mega Steve?

Sure.

Just consider what this buys you.

Millions of subjective hours of strategic planning, Monte Carlo simulations of different five-year trajectories, deep analysis of every line of code and technical system, and exhaustive scenario planning.

The cost to have an AI take a given role will become just the amount of compute the AI consumes.