Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
I'm defending it here against a hypothetical skeptic who says absolutely not, no way.
But it's not necessarily my mainline prediction.
But I think if we do see this in five years, it will look like, yeah, the AIs were able to simulate more things than humans in a gradually increasing way, so that if humans are now at 50% simulation, 50% testing, the AIs quickly got it up to 90% simulation, 10% testing.
They were able to manufacture things much more quickly than humans so that they could go through their top 50 designs in the first two years.
And then, yeah, after all of this simulation and all of this testing, then they eventually got it right for the same reasons humans do, but much, much faster.
There's this thing where through history people have been really reluctant to
to admit an AI is truly intelligent.
So for example, people used to think that AI would surely be truly intelligent if it solved chess, and then it solved chess, and you're like, no, that's just algorithms.
And then they said, well, maybe it would be truly intelligent if it could do philosophy, and then it could write philosophical discourses.
We were like, no, we just understand those are algorithms.
I think there's going to be, I think there already is something similar with like, is the AI misaligned?
Is the AI evil?
Where there's this kind of distant idea of some evil AI, but then whenever something goes wrong, people are just like, oh, that's the algorithm.
So for example, I think like 10 years ago,
You had asked, like, when will we know that misalignment is really an important thing to worry about?
People would say, oh, if the AI ever lies to you.
Of course, AIs lie to people all the time now, and everybody just kind of dismisses it because we understand why it happens.
It's a thing that would obviously happen based on our current AI architecture.
Or like five years ago, they might have said, well, if an AI threatens to kill someone.
I think Bing, like, threatened to kill a New York Times reporter during an interview.
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