Dwarkesh

So my guess for that prediction market would be whenever we think the agents are actually good,

I think in our scenario that's like late 2026, I'm going to be humble and not hold out for the superintelligence.

Yeah, and I think somebody mentioned this on the LessWrong post about it, and somebody made some AI-generated comments to that post.

They were not great, but I wouldn't have immediately picked them out if the general distribution of LessWrong comments is especially bad.

I think if you were to try this, you would get something that was so obviously an AI house style that you would use the word delve or things kind of along those lines.

I think if you were able to avoid that, maybe by using the base model, maybe by using some kind of really good prompt to be like, no, do this in Guern's voice, maybe

you would get something that was pretty good.

I think if you wrote a really stupid blog post, it could point out the correct objections to it.

But I also just don't think it's as smart as Guern right now.

So its limit on making Guern-style comments is both it needs to be able to do a style other than corporate Delve slop, and then it actually needs to get good.

Yeah.

And I mean, I think it is as smart as like, I think it can write as well as like a smart average person in a lot of ways.

And I think if you have a blog post that's like worse than that or at that level, it can come up with insightful comments about it.

I don't think it could do it on a quality blog post.

I am so mad at myself for missing most of the golden age of blogging.

I feel like if I had started a blog in 2000 or something, then, I don't know, I've done well for myself.

I can't complain.

But, like, the people from that era all got, like, all founded news organizations or something.

I mean, God saved me from that fate.

But...