Dylan Patel

But as far as like, if the model gets better at each scale of hardware spend, I would say all the tech giants believe it.

I believe it.

I think a lot of people in the financial community are like, this is freaking scary.

Because the moment it stopped, wherever you were on the wrong, right?

If we went from $50 billion spend to $500 billion spend, well, that $500 billion spend is never gonna have ROI.

It was one thing if 50 billion didn't have ROI, but now this 500 doesn't have ROI.

It's a big problem.

So anyways, one could think of it as diminishing returns because when you go from $50 billion of spend to $500 billion of spend, you only move up one tier of model capabilities in absence of major algorithmic improvements.

I'm holding those sort of off to the side for now.

But that iterative performance improvement in the model, it's like a six-year-old versus a 13-year-old maybe, right?

The amount of work you can get a 13-year-old to do is actually quite valuable relative to a six-year-old.

And the same applies to like a college intern versus someone who graduated and has even one year of work experience because there's a learning curve for kids coming out of college all the time.

While it may be in order of magnitude more of compute, the amount of value, if you made a company full of high schoolers and you had to refresh them every six months so they didn't learn too much and become really good, it would be really hard to create a valuable company.

The most you could do is dig trenches and do yard work, but then...

all the time these kids wouldn't even show up, right?

Like as a function of like how valuable the business could you do if you had unlimited high schoolers that refreshed so they didn't build knowledge versus college students versus 25 to 30 year olds.

The value of that business that you can build, even though incrementally it's just five years between each of them, it's a drastic value change.

Depends on the domain, right?

Like for software developers, like I think we're really pretty good.

And that's where we're seeing the most value creation happen.