Economic Analyst

A universal 10% tariff is in place while country-specific deals come together and sector-specific tariffs remain.

U.S. stock markets plunged for the second day in a row. We've seen consumer confidence tank. Layoff numbers across the U.S. are the highest they've been since 2020. The R-word is back, thanks in large part to tariffs. Wait, the R-word is back?

Wall Street banks are starting to raise a red flag that recession odds have become unsettlingly high.

And so he is now doubling down on his promise to impose steep tariffs on exports from Canada, Mexico, and China.

We had Goldman Sachs come out with their expectations for a recession. They've raised it from 20%. Now they see it at 35%.

People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job creation is fine. Wages are in good shape.

My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but they haven't materialized yet. And that tells me the right thing to do is await further clarity.

People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job creation is fine. Wages are in good shape. The economy itself is still in solid shape.