Ed Elson

I don't agree with the idea that it's going to bring down the markets by 40%.

I think that's way over the top.

But the fact that all of these things are interconnected, I think that is a worthwhile statement.

But it's the conclusions that are being drawn

and the actions that are being taken after these things come out, which just makes me think, like, where is your conviction?

I mean, if you were invested in these companies for the past 10, 15 years, and then suddenly some guy writes something and you decide, this is it, now I'm going to sell, it's like, well, then I don't really agree with your prize in the first place if this is what it took.

Some article that some guy wrote online that was kind of interesting and spurred some imaginative thoughts.

So we should turn, I guess, to some of his economic predictions.

The central stat is, again, he's writing this as if it's 2028, and we're looking at what's happening in the headlines.

Quote, the unemployment rate printed 10.2%.

And the cumulative drawdown in the S&P was down to 38% from October, 2026 highs.

And the central thesis is that AI adoption is going to cause this mass unemployment, which is going to reduce wages and reduce earnings across the board.

And it's gonna put the economy into this downward spiral.

And there's this idea that he brings up called, which he calls ghost GDP,

And I'll just read you the quote.

It says, when cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pundits popularized the phrase ghost GDP, output that shows up in the national accounts, but never circulates through the real economy.

And this is really the central idea of this AI thesis, that there's going to be a lot of value that is created, but none of us are really ever going to see it.

And I think that that is...

arguably fair only up to a point.

And the trouble is, it gets into this level of doomerism that just is really unrealistic, where there's this idea that actually we're not going to be able to get paid anything.