Ed Ludlow

So just this year, we're looking at about 160 million units wiped off the market.

But even when it starts to recover, which, as of our assumptions,

the situation would stabilize somewhat mid-27 and we're starting to go in positive growth territory.

But you're still looking at close to 160 million off the TAM.

So throughout our forecast, we're not expecting the TAM to get back to prior 2025 levels.

So essentially, and the reason for the drop is how the change in the competitive landscape is going to, you know, the impact that that's going to take.

So where is that $160 million coming from?

It's the prices of the memory, right?

And why we keep saying, I mean, the prices of the memory that has shot up up to even 300% from what they were last year, and they're continuing to go higher.

Memory that used to contribute to about 20% of the smartphone bomb cost is now,

Anywhere, you know, tripling that.

So imagine a smartphone that is below $100.

If the memory cost used to be $15, $20, and that's tripled, it's essentially making below $100, $150 smartphones uneconomical to make anymore.

So those OEMs, and there are a lot of, you know, Android OEMs operating in that space.

with majority of their portfolio, some with 90% of the portfolio below that, those are the ones that are at extreme risk.

Not to say that anyone is immune, even the larger players like Apple and Samsung are going to face higher memory prices, but at least they are able to secure the supply.

And when they get the supply, or at least majority of it, they can afford those higher prices, right?

Because their devices have larger margins.

It's really those lower-end Android players

that are already operating on razor-thin margins that are simply not going to be able to make those phones, those below $150 phones.