Ed

So it's not because I have some crystal ball because I think about markets all day.

Nobody does.

Right.

But it's an accountability machine in some way.

100%.

Well, that's just numbers, right?

I mean, this, as I said on my own show this morning, in finance, either you believe in valuations or you don't.

I believe in them.

We are in the top, not even decile, but what's after decile?

Like a hundredth or the 95th percentile.

We're in the 95th percentile, the 97th percentile of how expensive risk assets are related to history.

And always before in history, that predicts

low returns over the long term, you know, over the next 10 years or so.

As you might think, pay a lot for something, right?

The profits aren't going to be as high.

And in history, those low profits over the long term, over the next 10 years, don't come with a slow deflation.

They come with a big step down.

So history says, primarily for this reason, but also for others, we are in a bubble now.

But the problem is that long term.

Do we have that big step down in 2026 or in 2031 or one year in between?