Ed

He said, we're heading into situation...

where the chair of the Fed is going to be a dissenting vote.

Right.

Which is kind of new.

And I looked this up and one of my colleagues came back to me and said, actually, under Reagan, Chair Volcker, even the great Chair Volcker, Paul Volcker, did get outvoted by the committee once or twice.

So it's not unprecedented for the chair, but it's like a weird and novel situation.

How important is it that we seem likely to get a Trump patsy as chair of the Fed?

And I guess I'm thinking maybe that's just another vote.

Like, the press conferences are a little weird, granted, if they keep having press conferences.

But, you know, the guy just gets outvoted.

And there's a long history—

of people getting appointed by politicians who are then in safe jobs like they're Supreme Court justices or they are Fed chairs, and then disappointing their former master because they're safe.

But I will admit that this one does keep me up awake a bit more than the other predictions.

I was partly saying, we're only getting one or two,

one or two cuts because I wanted to be provocative.

You know what I mean?

Because everybody's out there saying it's going to be, whether it's Warsh or whoever it is, which Kevin it is, they're going to come in there and it's going to be like, suddenly the whole committee is going to be calling for 50, 100 points of cuts right off the bat.

And I just wanted to push back against that narrative.

There's no doubt.

that the way central banking works is less through the actual impact of the interest rate and more through signaling and messaging.