Einar Vollset

And like, really, the reason is because a lot of funds like and also like, look, I think the median fund still returns like at least one X, but it's there is a good number that that returned less than one X is probably 40% of funds, you don't even get your money back. That's pretty common. And so then you look further as like, okay, well, what's great performance in venture?

And like, really, the reason is because a lot of funds like and also like, look, I think the median fund still returns like at least one X, but it's there is a good number that that returned less than one X is probably 40% of funds, you don't even get your money back. That's pretty common. And so then you look further as like, okay, well, what's great performance in venture?

Like top clearly like 2X over, in that same timeframe, the S&P 500 probably went way up. I mean, it had the housing crash in 2008, but nonetheless, like what is amazing performance, like world-class look like? And that's actually in that quartile, it was just over 5X. So if you 5X, if you're a venture fund that 5X, then you were in the top 5% of funds in that timeframe.

Like top clearly like 2X over, in that same timeframe, the S&P 500 probably went way up. I mean, it had the housing crash in 2008, but nonetheless, like what is amazing performance, like world-class look like? And that's actually in that quartile, it was just over 5X. So if you 5X, if you're a venture fund that 5X, then you were in the top 5% of funds in that timeframe.

And I think the reason why people sort of like misunderstand this, they think venture, and then they think like, oh, you know, what do I know, think about when I think about venture? Well, it's like, it's like Airbnb type returns. You know, you hear about like YC, they invested at whatever, probably put same, I was in the same batch. So I know what they put in, probably $40,000, $20,000.

And I think the reason why people sort of like misunderstand this, they think venture, and then they think like, oh, you know, what do I know, think about when I think about venture? Well, it's like, it's like Airbnb type returns. You know, you hear about like YC, they invested at whatever, probably put same, I was in the same batch. So I know what they put in, probably $40,000, $20,000.

And you know, they, a thousand X or something like that. And so I think that sometimes translates into like, oh, at the fund level, That's the kind of return. So maybe not a thousand, but you're getting a hundred times your money. But that's an extreme outlier for venture funds. And really, if you're looking for a thousand X, you shouldn't be in venture. You shouldn't be in venture funds.

And you know, they, a thousand X or something like that. And so I think that sometimes translates into like, oh, at the fund level, That's the kind of return. So maybe not a thousand, but you're getting a hundred times your money. But that's an extreme outlier for venture funds. And really, if you're looking for a thousand X, you shouldn't be in venture. You shouldn't be in venture funds.

That doesn't make any sense. It's almost impossible to get a thousand. It is impossible to get a thousand X in a venture fund or even a hundred X. If you're wanting to do that, then you should put all your money into single bets. Like you should be investing in individual companies and like concentrate your position as much as you can into your extreme high conviction bets and just go for that.

That doesn't make any sense. It's almost impossible to get a thousand. It is impossible to get a thousand X in a venture fund or even a hundred X. If you're wanting to do that, then you should put all your money into single bets. Like you should be investing in individual companies and like concentrate your position as much as you can into your extreme high conviction bets and just go for that.

And that's the way to do that. But a lot of investors, they don't want to do that. And so the question then is like, why would you invest in a venture fund instead of doing that? The reason is you're reducing risk. That's what you care about. Like you're basically trading off. You're saying like, look, OK, I'm willing to forego this notion that I'm going to, you know, 100x my money.

And that's the way to do that. But a lot of investors, they don't want to do that. And so the question then is like, why would you invest in a venture fund instead of doing that? The reason is you're reducing risk. That's what you care about. Like you're basically trading off. You're saying like, look, OK, I'm willing to forego this notion that I'm going to, you know, 100x my money.

But the flip side is I'm less likely to lose it all. The standard outcome, if you invest all your money into a single company, is you're going to lose it. Like at least an early stage company, you're going to lose all the money. And if that's not something that you want to do, that's not part of your investment strategy, then investing in a fund makes sense. And you're making that trade off then.

But the flip side is I'm less likely to lose it all. The standard outcome, if you invest all your money into a single company, is you're going to lose it. Like at least an early stage company, you're going to lose all the money. And if that's not something that you want to do, that's not part of your investment strategy, then investing in a fund makes sense. And you're making that trade off then.

I mean, it's probably above way above average return. So good job.

I mean, it's probably above way above average return. So good job.

Well, I think I think that's the key thing. Like I tell people this, and I'm not just I'm not being, you know, unusually humble about this. And the fact is, like, TinySeed wouldn't work if you weren't there. Yeah. At least the early days. I don't have the deal flow. I just don't.

Well, I think I think that's the key thing. Like I tell people this, and I'm not just I'm not being, you know, unusually humble about this. And the fact is, like, TinySeed wouldn't work if you weren't there. Yeah. At least the early days. I don't have the deal flow. I just don't.

And I think because of your background with MicroConf and Startups for the Rest of Us and all the stuff that people know about you, and there's probably you, and I've been saying there's less than half a dozen people worldwide that naturally has that kind of deal flow, quality deal flow, pricing power that's coming your way.

And I think because of your background with MicroConf and Startups for the Rest of Us and all the stuff that people know about you, and there's probably you, and I've been saying there's less than half a dozen people worldwide that naturally has that kind of deal flow, quality deal flow, pricing power that's coming your way.