Einar Vollset
speaker
326 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2025
last heard 10 Mar
Einar Vollset’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But that's raw data, right?
That's like raw, real training data, which like you're not generating that kind of like text, textual data, but in and of itself.
So so there's a there's a constraint there.
You could potentially like synthetic data, but then you have issues with like, well, are you really improving your self-improvement?
Yeah, dodgy data.
So there's that.
And then fundamentally also, like it's just the asymptote stuff just has to do with sort of the increasing cost of compute.
I was arguing with someone on Twitter, which I know must shock you guys.
What?
Yeah.
But they were basically like saying like, look, they had this graph.
It was something along the lines of like,
you know, a 50% improvement, you know, 30 times in a row is like, is still like an amazing, you know, is like a fundamental change to everything we know about.
And I'm like, yeah, but if you assume that, say, ChatGPT-3 costs $20 million to train in compute budget, and you're having for every step up, you have the 10x the budget, like by time, like 23 or something, the compute budget is higher in US dollars than the number of atoms in the observable universe.
So like, okay, what are we talking about here?
Like, you know, yeah, I know on paper you can make this work, but that's just not how it's going to be.
There has to be, I think, and I think there's, I think most people now, if you look, talk to like leading edge research and stuff, sort of agree with this.
They're like, look, there has to be another breakthrough to really start that, like to get to the next kind of level that that capability where people start talking about like super intelligence or like, you know, something like that.
It needs something else.
You can't just throw more synthetic data and compute on it.
Showing 121–140 of 326 · page 7 of 17
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