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E.J. Antoni

👤 Person
515 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

But at the same time, the government has also been up against the debt ceiling. And so even the spending that they've been doing, they haven't been able to borrow. They've been having to go through cash at the Treasury. They're down about $500 billion or so. So that means that essentially the government is not only spending less, but they're borrowing less.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

This takes away the primary impetus behind inflation. So most of that price pressure is now gone. It is going to return, unfortunately, at some point. So we have to hope that this tax bill is not only cutting taxes, but cutting spending, too.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

This takes away the primary impetus behind inflation. So most of that price pressure is now gone. It is going to return, unfortunately, at some point. So we have to hope that this tax bill is not only cutting taxes, but cutting spending, too.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

No, I don't think so. I think it's primarily going to be the issue of the government spending, borrowing, and then printing too much money to pay its bills. In terms of tariffs, we actually really haven't even seen

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

No, I don't think so. I think it's primarily going to be the issue of the government spending, borrowing, and then printing too much money to pay its bills. In terms of tariffs, we actually really haven't even seen

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

those effects yet, because when we look at something like the Consumer Price Index, that comes from a survey which is conducted three times a month, the beginning, the middle, and the end, to try to eliminate any temporary spikes within a particular month. Well, when we look at the price increases that we saw in the month of April, for example, that were related to tariffs,

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

those effects yet, because when we look at something like the Consumer Price Index, that comes from a survey which is conducted three times a month, the beginning, the middle, and the end, to try to eliminate any temporary spikes within a particular month. Well, when we look at the price increases that we saw in the month of April, for example, that were related to tariffs,

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

They didn't arrive until the very end of the month, the last week. So only one of the three surveys in that month in terms of prices would have picked up any of those increases. We're much more likely to see the impact of tariffs in May, even though those tariffs were first introduced back in April.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

They didn't arrive until the very end of the month, the last week. So only one of the three surveys in that month in terms of prices would have picked up any of those increases. We're much more likely to see the impact of tariffs in May, even though those tariffs were first introduced back in April.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Well, unfortunately, that's going to depend largely on how these trade deals shape out, because like we were just saying, they aren't really deals in the sense of we don't have anything concrete, not just in terms of these things haven't been ratified by their respective governments, but they don't even have concrete details in them in the case of something like China.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Well, unfortunately, that's going to depend largely on how these trade deals shape out, because like we were just saying, they aren't really deals in the sense of we don't have anything concrete, not just in terms of these things haven't been ratified by their respective governments, but they don't even have concrete details in them in the case of something like China.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

So markets are probably going to continue overreacting to whatever news comes out. In other words, if a piece of good news comes out, we'll see that big bull run. But if a piece of bad news comes out, it'll go the other way. Markets overreacted in the days after April 2nd, and frankly, they're overreacting now again. That's just the nature of the market. These markets are a beast.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

So markets are probably going to continue overreacting to whatever news comes out. In other words, if a piece of good news comes out, we'll see that big bull run. But if a piece of bad news comes out, it'll go the other way. Markets overreacted in the days after April 2nd, and frankly, they're overreacting now again. That's just the nature of the market. These markets are a beast.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Not quite, although we are vastly improved since the infamous Jim Cramer said we're going to have another Black Monday event. It turns out that that was probably the market bottom.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Not quite, although we are vastly improved since the infamous Jim Cramer said we're going to have another Black Monday event. It turns out that that was probably the market bottom.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

But again, for the most part, if we look at a lot of different things, not just equities, you can look at the treasury markets and others, we're basically back, not quite, but we're basically back to where we were on April 1st.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

But again, for the most part, if we look at a lot of different things, not just equities, you can look at the treasury markets and others, we're basically back, not quite, but we're basically back to where we were on April 1st.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Well, I'm no attorney, but the attorneys that I have talked to on certain tariffs say there's absolutely no way they hold up. Things like the tariff on foreign films, for example. to do this. Another one is that 10% baseline tariff. I've heard from a lot of legal minds that say that's the least likely to hold up in court.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

Well, I'm no attorney, but the attorneys that I have talked to on certain tariffs say there's absolutely no way they hold up. Things like the tariff on foreign films, for example. to do this. Another one is that 10% baseline tariff. I've heard from a lot of legal minds that say that's the least likely to hold up in court.

Morning Wire
Trade Deals, Tariff Truce & Trillions in US Investments

You're much more likely to see things like the individual rates on particular countries hold up in court. So a 35% rate on China versus a 25% rate on Canada, whatever the case may be. The individual rates are much more likely to hold up than the 10% across the board. But frankly, that's all the more reason why you should put that 10% rate into statute.