E.J. Antoni

But if you look at something like the whole conversation about whether Trump will remove Powell, this is, I think, a good illustration. The market doesn't really like Jerome Powell, but the idea of removing him creates a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And that's the last thing markets need right now on top of the uncertainty they already have.

But if you look at something like the whole conversation about whether Trump will remove Powell, this is, I think, a good illustration. The market doesn't really like Jerome Powell, but the idea of removing him creates a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And that's the last thing markets need right now on top of the uncertainty they already have.

Well, unfortunately, the Fed really has just been putting politics before policy. They talk about how they're data dependent. As far as I can tell, the only data they're really paying attention to is whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat. I mean, there was absolutely no empirical justification for the rate cuts that they instituted right before the election last year.

Well, unfortunately, the Fed really has just been putting politics before policy. They talk about how they're data dependent. As far as I can tell, the only data they're really paying attention to is whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat. I mean, there was absolutely no empirical justification for the rate cuts that they instituted right before the election last year.

That was a blatant move of election interference, in my opinion. And now, despite the data being even more favorable today for a rate cut, they're refusing to do it. It makes absolutely no sense. This is the same Jerome Powell who, for example, when he was up for renomination, set a 75 basis point hike, or in other words, a three-quarter percentage point increase in interest rates.

That was a blatant move of election interference, in my opinion. And now, despite the data being even more favorable today for a rate cut, they're refusing to do it. It makes absolutely no sense. This is the same Jerome Powell who, for example, when he was up for renomination, set a 75 basis point hike, or in other words, a three-quarter percentage point increase in interest rates.

That was off the table, he said. As soon as he was confirmed, he delivered four of those jumbo-sized rate hikes in a row. And it's also worth pointing out, not only is Jerome Powell blatantly political, but also we need to understand that just because the Fed makes a move doesn't mean the market will follow. When the Fed cut interest rates last year, again, right around the election –

That was off the table, he said. As soon as he was confirmed, he delivered four of those jumbo-sized rate hikes in a row. And it's also worth pointing out, not only is Jerome Powell blatantly political, but also we need to understand that just because the Fed makes a move doesn't mean the market will follow. When the Fed cut interest rates last year, again, right around the election –

We saw 100 basis points of cuts, and then the yield on treasuries moved exactly the opposite direction. It went up 100 basis points. So as markets increasingly don't believe the Fed, whether that's looking at inflation predictions or employment predictions, what the Fed does is mattering less and less.

We saw 100 basis points of cuts, and then the yield on treasuries moved exactly the opposite direction. It went up 100 basis points. So as markets increasingly don't believe the Fed, whether that's looking at inflation predictions or employment predictions, what the Fed does is mattering less and less.

And so markets, I think, are much more today focused on what's happening with tariffs, what's happening with the tax cut package. Is that actually going to get across the finish line? Because don't forget, that's 10 times the size of the tariffs if we're looking at impact on the consumer. You also have a lot going on in terms of the president's deregulatory agenda.

And so markets, I think, are much more today focused on what's happening with tariffs, what's happening with the tax cut package. Is that actually going to get across the finish line? Because don't forget, that's 10 times the size of the tariffs if we're looking at impact on the consumer. You also have a lot going on in terms of the president's deregulatory agenda.

It remains to be seen whether or not that's going to get across the finish line. So there's a whole lot up in the air right now. And although the Fed is one of those balls being juggled by the market in the air right now, it's not the only thing. And I would say it's not even the biggest.

It remains to be seen whether or not that's going to get across the finish line. So there's a whole lot up in the air right now. And although the Fed is one of those balls being juggled by the market in the air right now, it's not the only thing. And I would say it's not even the biggest.

I think it's going to be a combination of getting the spending down, but also the revenue up. How do you get the revenue up? Look, we have to remember the lessons from the Laffer curve. Speaking of which, Dr. Laffer and Dr. Brian Dimitrovich just recently put out a great book called Taxes Have Consequences.

I think it's going to be a combination of getting the spending down, but also the revenue up. How do you get the revenue up? Look, we have to remember the lessons from the Laffer curve. Speaking of which, Dr. Laffer and Dr. Brian Dimitrovich just recently put out a great book called Taxes Have Consequences.

And the empirical analysis in there is absolutely immaculate, where they explain in great detail how the reductions in income tax rates, particularly the top marginal tax rate, results in not less tax revenue, but more. And the reason for that is because you grow the tax base and you essentially increase economic activity by reducing the marginal tax rate.

And the empirical analysis in there is absolutely immaculate, where they explain in great detail how the reductions in income tax rates, particularly the top marginal tax rate, results in not less tax revenue, but more. And the reason for that is because you grow the tax base and you essentially increase economic activity by reducing the marginal tax rate.

And so the lower tax rate actually yields more and not less income. tax revenue. And it's very clear throughout the history of the income tax. That's what happens because we're on the wrong side of the law for curve in terms of maximizing revenue. So getting this tax package through Congress onto the president's desk, getting his signature is absolutely imperative. It'll grow the economy.

And so the lower tax rate actually yields more and not less income. tax revenue. And it's very clear throughout the history of the income tax. That's what happens because we're on the wrong side of the law for curve in terms of maximizing revenue. So getting this tax package through Congress onto the president's desk, getting his signature is absolutely imperative. It'll grow the economy.