Eliezer Yudkowsky

In some sense.

Before time.

If you've got someone on your show who believes in the Abrahamic deity, classical style, somebody on the show who's a young earth creationist, do you say, I put a probability on it, then that's my empathy?

Yeah.

I think it's a little more difficult nowadays to find people who believe that unironically.

So what probability do you assign to the young Earth's creationist beliefs then?

I think I have to give non-zero.

Out of your humility.

Yeah, but like three?

Well, zero, 40%, and 100% is a bit closer to it based on what happens to chat GPT after you RLHF it to speak humanese.

Also, quick disclaimer.

I'm doing all this from memory.

I'm not pulling out my phone to look it up.

It is entirely possible that the things I am saying are wrong.

So thank you for that disclaimer.

Oh, I block those people and then I never hear from them again on Twitter.

I think that burns the time remaining until everybody dies.

I think we are not on track to learn remotely near fast enough, even if it were open sourced.

Yeah, it's easier to think that you might be wrong about something when being wrong about something is the only way that there's hope.

And it doesn't seem very likely to me that the particular thing I'm wrong about is that this is a great time to open source GPT-4.