Eliezer Yudkowsky

Are we allowed to do probability?

Sure.

You can state a probability.

In some sense.

Before time.

If you've got someone on your show who believes in the Abrahamic deity, classical style, somebody on the show who's a young earth creationist, do you say, I put a probability on it, then that's my empathy?

Yeah.

I think it's a little more difficult nowadays to find people who believe that unironically.

So what probability do you assign to the young Earth's creationist beliefs then?

I think I have to give non-zero.

Out of your humility.

Yeah, but like three?

Well, zero, 40%, and 100% is a bit closer to it based on what happens to chat GPT after you RLHF it to speak humanese.

Also, quick disclaimer.

I'm doing all this from memory.

I'm not pulling out my phone to look it up.

It is entirely possible that the things I am saying are wrong.

So thank you for that disclaimer.

Oh, I block those people and then I never hear from them again on Twitter.

I think that burns the time remaining until everybody dies.