Elizabeth Ayoola

So when we talk about the health of the overall economy, it's a matter of making sense of all of these different snapshots of various parts of the economy at various times. But then you're also putting them together with what we know about how the economy has behaved in history and the impact of things that are happening right now.

So when we talk about the health of the overall economy, it's a matter of making sense of all of these different snapshots of various parts of the economy at various times. But then you're also putting them together with what we know about how the economy has behaved in history and the impact of things that are happening right now.

So when we talk about the health of the overall economy, it's a matter of making sense of all of these different snapshots of various parts of the economy at various times. But then you're also putting them together with what we know about how the economy has behaved in history and the impact of things that are happening right now.

So things that we don't even have data for yet, or in some cases, historic precedents, like the current tariffs. So it can make for a very complex recipe.

So things that we don't even have data for yet, or in some cases, historic precedents, like the current tariffs. So it can make for a very complex recipe.

So things that we don't even have data for yet, or in some cases, historic precedents, like the current tariffs. So it can make for a very complex recipe.

Well, the economy is holding up, but consumers and businesses are being cautious. So a quick rundown is that the unemployment rate is at a moderate level, wages are growing in a sustainable way, and prices aren't increasing dramatically. However... Hiring continues to slow, and we know people are trying to get ahead of the impact of tariffs.

Well, the economy is holding up, but consumers and businesses are being cautious. So a quick rundown is that the unemployment rate is at a moderate level, wages are growing in a sustainable way, and prices aren't increasing dramatically. However... Hiring continues to slow, and we know people are trying to get ahead of the impact of tariffs.

Well, the economy is holding up, but consumers and businesses are being cautious. So a quick rundown is that the unemployment rate is at a moderate level, wages are growing in a sustainable way, and prices aren't increasing dramatically. However... Hiring continues to slow, and we know people are trying to get ahead of the impact of tariffs.

Over the past few months, for example, imports surged, and so did vehicle sales. So we're beginning to see in the hard data, but also in sentiment data or consumer surveys, that people are preparing for potentially tougher economic times in the form of higher prices, for instance. I want to talk more about economic growth.

Over the past few months, for example, imports surged, and so did vehicle sales. So we're beginning to see in the hard data, but also in sentiment data or consumer surveys, that people are preparing for potentially tougher economic times in the form of higher prices, for instance. I want to talk more about economic growth.

Over the past few months, for example, imports surged, and so did vehicle sales. So we're beginning to see in the hard data, but also in sentiment data or consumer surveys, that people are preparing for potentially tougher economic times in the form of higher prices, for instance. I want to talk more about economic growth.

So GDP is the standard way that we measure economic production or growth. It's a formula that tries to capture most everything that an economy produces. So when the change in real GDP is positive, the economy is said to be growing or expanding. And when it's negative, we call that a contraction. Generally, the long-term average of real GDP is about 3%. So in 2024, for instance, it was around 2.5%.

So GDP is the standard way that we measure economic production or growth. It's a formula that tries to capture most everything that an economy produces. So when the change in real GDP is positive, the economy is said to be growing or expanding. And when it's negative, we call that a contraction. Generally, the long-term average of real GDP is about 3%. So in 2024, for instance, it was around 2.5%.

So GDP is the standard way that we measure economic production or growth. It's a formula that tries to capture most everything that an economy produces. So when the change in real GDP is positive, the economy is said to be growing or expanding. And when it's negative, we call that a contraction. Generally, the long-term average of real GDP is about 3%. So in 2024, for instance, it was around 2.5%.

And in the whole of 2023, it was 3.2%. So there's some bouncing around that average. However, this last week, we learned that real GDP for the first quarter was negative 0.3%, which is just slightly negative, but it does indicate a contraction. And at first blush, this could be alarming, but a look at what goes into the calculation provides some clarity.

And in the whole of 2023, it was 3.2%. So there's some bouncing around that average. However, this last week, we learned that real GDP for the first quarter was negative 0.3%, which is just slightly negative, but it does indicate a contraction. And at first blush, this could be alarming, but a look at what goes into the calculation provides some clarity.

And in the whole of 2023, it was 3.2%. So there's some bouncing around that average. However, this last week, we learned that real GDP for the first quarter was negative 0.3%, which is just slightly negative, but it does indicate a contraction. And at first blush, this could be alarming, but a look at what goes into the calculation provides some clarity.

So the primary cause of this negative number is the effect of a rush to import goods ahead of tariffs. Household and government spending, business investments and exports, all of those are added together in GDP, but imports aren't produced here, so they aren't counted in the same way.

So the primary cause of this negative number is the effect of a rush to import goods ahead of tariffs. Household and government spending, business investments and exports, all of those are added together in GDP, but imports aren't produced here, so they aren't counted in the same way.