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Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

But my first interpretation is that this has a lot more to do with Oracle in particular than it does with the bond market.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

And this could have broader effects on the tolerance for lenders and AI ambitions.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

But look, Oracle is laying a ton of debt to fund this AI ambition.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

It maybe doesn't have the best track record when it comes with capital allocation in the past.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

So I think lenders are just catching on to the level of risk associated with the deals and with Oracle in particular.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

I mean, we're talking about tens of billions in new bonds and project finance loans with Oracle.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

So I mean, the good thing about being on the equity side of Oracle is that you have theoretically all of the upside of those investments actually pay out.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

And yes, of course, all the downside if they don't.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

But bond investors really only get that principal and interest back.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

So in my opinion, it makes sense that they're demanding just a

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

a little bit more of a premium for taking on that additional risk.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

This is such an interesting question because this calculation has been centered upon what's the return on investment for artificial intelligence in particular.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

This equation has always been, we make all these investment dollars, what am I getting out of it?

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

The equation is actually, what is the return on investment

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

for the artificial intelligence investments, really data centers, that's what the debt's being used to pay for, versus what is the cost of the financing.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

The focus has been on the former part of that equation, not so much the latter.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

But maybe we should all be thinking a little bit more about the latter part of that equation as we look at the bond markets here.

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

Because even if the former gets a decent return, even if we're getting

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

eight to 10%, let's say, of a return on our AI investments, is that actually more than the cost of our debt financing?

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Is the “Santa Rally” Cancelled This Year?

And even if we're not funding with debt, if we're funding with cash, and there's been some question marks about how much of this is being covered with cash,