Emmet

And that there is an AI productivity revolution undergoing right now in front of our eyes.

You and I as information workers, if you like, can see how AI is augmenting everything we touch.

And then maybe if you're in landscape gardening, it's less apparent, but AI is fundamentally

causing this productivity revolution.

And it's now extending far beyond the Magnificent Seven into the broader economy.

And Morgan Stanley has put forward in a piece that I was reading on the plane the other day into this, it could power a late cycle bull market surge.

I hope I haven't over-engineered that sentence.

But over the next few years,

we will see more and more and more new highs, which of course we all wish for.

As growth investors, as value investors, as any type of investor, you celebrate these runs.

But the historical analogy that they used, that Morgan Stanley used, is that the biggest productivity gains from the internet boom

which those my own age and your own age will remember came three years after the mania, not during it.

So I remember late 99 stocks with rather businesses with broken business models and half formed ideas like flues.com was the one that was being bandied about as the.

Yeah, all those kind of businesses, while that mania was raging and indeed a bubble was forming in the pets.com and flues.com, businesses were taken out by bubble bursting.

The true productivity gains that the internet delivered came to fruition three years later, which has touched all of our lives.

None of us, even the landscape gardener, has not been...

accelerated beyond humanity's wildest imaginations from 30 years as 30 years ago as a consequence of the internet and uh morgan stanley's saying that ai is going to have a similar effect and although there's another thing which tech technical analysts out there um are also saying and just going back to our semi semiconductor point is they said that the current semiconductor momentum levels

despite this extraordinary gain that you just described remain below the dot-com bubble extremes and there's there's no evidence of this kind of bearish divergence which i don't know whether we take a comfort from that uh or is it somewhat unsettling and i guess it depends on your

on your disposition but the bottom line from me anyways that nobody ever rings the bell at the top uh and what we can say with absolute confidence is conditions for a bubble they're definitely present like they are present there's extreme valuations uh there's momentum chasing there's a single sector concentration as you rightfully described and then it's very hard to avoid comparisons with

1999 and March, sorry, year 2000.