Eric Campbell

But what the Philippines has said is that if anybody dies as a result of these Grozan activities, they will invoke the mutual defence treaty with the United States.

So had we gone down, technically it could have been grounds for a war, which I wasn't really expecting on that morning jaunt over Scarborough Shoal.

I think what it does show is that while China is not trying to avoid war, it can easily stumble into it.

The grey zone activities, it can get out of control.

I mean, they had a sort of melee, I think the year before last, where they attacked Filipino Marines with knives and a Marine lost his thumb.

I mean, it could so easily result in a death.

And China just seems reckless about this.

If Trump decided to follow through, that's probably what's changed now.

It's the fact that, you know, China does not fear the US in the way it used to.

That's what I'm going to Taiwan for in a couple of days to find out.

Because I think what's interesting is, A, the fact that Trump, you know, after his tongue bath he gave to Xi Jinping in Beijing recently, and his willingness to bargain about supplying weapons to Taiwan in return for trade deals with China, has given the impression that the strategic ambiguity you mentioned isn't that ambiguous anymore.

Mm-hmm.

that the answer is probably no, plus the fact that the US has lost so many missiles in Iran that it's not really in the same sort of strategic position as it was even if it wanted to defend Taiwan.

And the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shown how effective a maritime blockade can be.

So you put those three things together and it does create a certain level of anxiety in Taiwan.

Even if they're confident the status quo will continue,

They're also busily trying to build up their drone capacity, their asymmetric war capacity.

They've seen what happens in Ukraine when a big power attacks a small power.

They've seen the end of the rules-based global order, if you want to call it that.

My feeling is that they're not alarmed but very, very alert at the moment.