Eric Vishria
speaker
163 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Sep 2024
Eric Vishria’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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And if you could actually request a ride instantly and pay for it easily with shorter wait time and much more accuracy and much less cumbersome communication, could a market be created?
Yeah. Yeah.
And I think that was a huge part of, you know, Gurley and the rest of the benchmark teams at that time predates me. It was a huge part of their insight in terms of the investment thesis. And so like when you kind of think about a situation like that, okay, that's market created. That's a good example of market creation. And we have those all over. Like if you were like...
I'll give you another one that's kind of like really interesting right now, which is AI medical scribes. And so you're like, you go to the doctor and you talk to your doctor and then they have to do a bunch of notes and everything else. And so there's a bunch of these AI medical scribes. You kind of like look at it and you look at the proposition and I've looked at it now.
I've met several of these companies over the years and we haven't invested in any. But going back, I don't know, five years when I met the first one, it's like, If this exists and works, yeah, that's a better way. It is a better way. So there will be market created there. It's going to take away from the actual human scribe business, but it is a new market in a way.
And like, you can imagine, like, it's not hard to imagine that exists. And we often say this when we're talking about companies, which is like, if you fast forward three years, is this a thing? Like, is it a thing? It's like often a good sign when you're like, yeah, like, that's a thing. Like, it's going to be a thing. Like, we believe that.
I think this is where we go back to where we started. Do we have an extraordinary entrepreneur that you believe in? Do you think they have an insight that is cogent? And I would say this, maybe this is a more useful way to say it. The more competitive the market is, the higher the bar you have to hold on those two things, I think. And so in a hyper-competitive market...
You have to really believe in the entrepreneur and really believe in the heart of the insight and their execution ability. And in a less competitive market, it's just misery in life to work as a venture capitalist and serve on the board if you don't really love the entrepreneur and really love the area.
So that's a thing for me, which is I think about a lot when I'm kind of looking at a company is like, Am I going to be able to authentically help this entrepreneur close great talent? Am I going to be able to talk to them and tell them why this should be...
this should be an amazing... This is an amazing person that I can tell somebody that this should be their life's work and help convince them to join a company. Which is a big part of what we do. And so when you look at that, I ask myself that question. And if my answer is like, you know what? I think it's a cool business. It'll probably work. But...
like I just don't understand how I can make that pitch, then I don't do it. Like, that's my, like, I just, I don't do it. And so, and so like, there's this balance there, but like, I think that's a big important part of it. And the more competitive the market, the higher the bar has to be.
Yeah, Nuance could just crush everybody.
Yeah. Today's incumbents are paranoid and on top of things and like, is Microsoft and Nuance going to move slower and whatever than your average AI medical scribe company? Of course, but they're not dopes and they don't have their head in the sand. And so like, yeah, I mean, I think that is like, you do have to factor that in for sure.
The answer is for sure both. I would maybe tweak your question, which is to say, I don't know that it's going to be like the price per seat model. But I'll give you a simple way to look at it. Let's take the AI coding area, right? We've seen like tremendous amount of capital go into AI coding and co-pilots and AI software engineers and whatever.
Let's say your fully loaded IT or software person is 200 grand for just for argument's sake. And if you think about that $200,000, there is, call it $10,000 for every one of these software engineers or IT people. There's $10,000 of tool spend. In that, I would put like Jira, which is Atlassian, GitHub, ServiceNow, a computer, whatever, development environment, get whatever.
So all that's caught $10,000 a year, roughly. on that 10 grand a year of spend, how many hundreds of billions of market cap has been created? Like 300, 400, 500, some big number of market cap has been created on $10,000 worth of spend for each of these software engineers.
So if the AI, if you can get AI good enough to eat much more of the $200,000 of value attributed to your software engineer, IT person, It just follows that there's like 20x more value creation and there will be giant, giant outcomes.
So in this way, and this is the challenge with it, which is it's simultaneously the most exciting and most disorienting time in my 25 years in technology, because that is a really challenging situation where In some ways, the prize is so big that you could very easily say you can justify really ridiculous prices on any fundamentals basis.
You can justify really ridiculous investment, again, on any fundamentals basis because it's like, well, the prize is so big. So that's one part of it. And then the other part of it's like, wait a minute, we're a little ways away from replacing the software engineer right now. We're a bit away from that. And we haven't actually captured that much market value yet. Right.
And really no one's demonstrated anything close to that level quite yet. Although the trajectory is like really quite good. And so that's the tension and challenge with it. And this is the kind of thing that we have to like navigate through every day.
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