Erica Frantz

So we know that a split up and fragmented opposition is going to be less likely to be effective. But the other key thing to point out is that when we see Democratic backsliding, it's really tempting to look to the opposition and say, okay, you need to do something to prevent this. Like, this is the key group that's going to prevent this from happening.

So we know that a split up and fragmented opposition is going to be less likely to be effective. But the other key thing to point out is that when we see Democratic backsliding, it's really tempting to look to the opposition and say, okay, you need to do something to prevent this. Like, this is the key group that's going to prevent this from happening.

But it's really difficult for opposition parties to do much when they lose majority representation in the legislature. Once we see these parties get a majority in the legislature, the door is often really wide open for the leader to do what he wants to do. From the get-go, it was pretty clear that Bukele was going to be trouble for democracy once he won election in 2019.

But it's really difficult for opposition parties to do much when they lose majority representation in the legislature. Once we see these parties get a majority in the legislature, the door is often really wide open for the leader to do what he wants to do. From the get-go, it was pretty clear that Bukele was going to be trouble for democracy once he won election in 2019.

But things didn't really gain momentum until the legislative elections in 2021, where his Nueva Ideas party got the legislative majority. And right after that, he started fiddling with the judiciary in ways that advantaged him. So the opposition can sound the alarm bell that democracy is under threat and all of these things.

But things didn't really gain momentum until the legislative elections in 2021, where his Nueva Ideas party got the legislative majority. And right after that, he started fiddling with the judiciary in ways that advantaged him. So the opposition can sound the alarm bell that democracy is under threat and all of these things.

But those calls are going to be pretty impotent if they lack legislative representation.

But those calls are going to be pretty impotent if they lack legislative representation.

Yes, it is precisely because the Republican Party is different than it was in 2017. We now have individuals completely fearful that if they don't get in line behind Trump, they're not going to get the party nomination. That is just a very different political landscape than a few years ago. And I agree with you that the term personalist is definitely overused and perhaps not super flashy.

Yes, it is precisely because the Republican Party is different than it was in 2017. We now have individuals completely fearful that if they don't get in line behind Trump, they're not going to get the party nomination. That is just a very different political landscape than a few years ago. And I agree with you that the term personalist is definitely overused and perhaps not super flashy.

It's also true that a personalist party is kind of a boring term. And that's one of the interesting messages that comes out of it, that if we want to help support democratic health globally— We need to help build political parties, which sounds super boring.

It's also true that a personalist party is kind of a boring term. And that's one of the interesting messages that comes out of it, that if we want to help support democratic health globally— We need to help build political parties, which sounds super boring.

But it turns out that this old school political concept of political party is really valuable for preserving and protecting executive constraints and helping democracies flourish. And I fully agree that there is a bit of fatigue about saying, oh, Trump's harmful for democracy and a new Trump term is going to be so bad. And I think a lot of ordinary people are kind of tired of that messaging.

But it turns out that this old school political concept of political party is really valuable for preserving and protecting executive constraints and helping democracies flourish. And I fully agree that there is a bit of fatigue about saying, oh, Trump's harmful for democracy and a new Trump term is going to be so bad. And I think a lot of ordinary people are kind of tired of that messaging.

But if we zoom out and think about, okay, well, what does the evidence show about when a leader has this much influence over their political party and when they have a legislative majority? And the reality is that the chance of democratic collapse goes up fairly dramatically.

But if we zoom out and think about, okay, well, what does the evidence show about when a leader has this much influence over their political party and when they have a legislative majority? And the reality is that the chance of democratic collapse goes up fairly dramatically.

And that's taken into account a ton of other factors, levels of wealth, political polarization, whether citizens support democracy and so forth. So from that perspective, this shift in the Republican Party where it's just Trump's party and the fact that we have the Republican legislative majority is really an alarm bell.

And that's taken into account a ton of other factors, levels of wealth, political polarization, whether citizens support democracy and so forth. So from that perspective, this shift in the Republican Party where it's just Trump's party and the fact that we have the Republican legislative majority is really an alarm bell.

Sure. So first, I would recommend Jessica Weeks, who has a book called Dictators at War and Peace. And this is our go-to book for explaining why personalist dictatorship is bad for foreign policy. So it's a very good read. I also would recommend Javier Corrales, who has a book called Autocracy Rising. And this is this really detailed exploration of how Venezuela's democracy fell apart.

Sure. So first, I would recommend Jessica Weeks, who has a book called Dictators at War and Peace. And this is our go-to book for explaining why personalist dictatorship is bad for foreign policy. So it's a very good read. I also would recommend Javier Corrales, who has a book called Autocracy Rising. And this is this really detailed exploration of how Venezuela's democracy fell apart.