Erica Frantz

We know that countries that have really long experiences with democracy are less likely to backslide and that countries that are wealthier are less likely to backslide. So democracy in the U.S. should be fairly protected. And I did think at the time that the chance of backsliding in the U.S. was somewhat higher than it had been in years past, let's say.

We know that countries that have really long experiences with democracy are less likely to backslide and that countries that are wealthier are less likely to backslide. So democracy in the U.S. should be fairly protected. And I did think at the time that the chance of backsliding in the U.S. was somewhat higher than it had been in years past, let's say.

But overall, we were at a far lower risk than, say, a place like Venezuela or But then the big shift that happened was really circling back to personalism again, but the control that Trump got over the Republican Party since he even that he left power in 2020. And so that was a critical shift.

But overall, we were at a far lower risk than, say, a place like Venezuela or But then the big shift that happened was really circling back to personalism again, but the control that Trump got over the Republican Party since he even that he left power in 2020. And so that was a critical shift.

On the one hand, it was a big positive that Trump's efforts to stay in office after losing the election in 2020, they failed, right, because of the Republican Party, and in particular, Vice President Pence. So that was a big testing point for American democracy. And, you know, we got through that one.

On the one hand, it was a big positive that Trump's efforts to stay in office after losing the election in 2020, they failed, right, because of the Republican Party, and in particular, Vice President Pence. So that was a big testing point for American democracy. And, you know, we got through that one.

But the critical red flag to me is that the Republican Party has a majority in the legislature this time and that Trump has really established full control over the party. So the key things to be paying attention to in the years to come are mainly in the months to come, to be quite frank. We want to see how is the Republican Party going to settle following this election?

But the critical red flag to me is that the Republican Party has a majority in the legislature this time and that Trump has really established full control over the party. So the key things to be paying attention to in the years to come are mainly in the months to come, to be quite frank. We want to see how is the Republican Party going to settle following this election?

We've already witnessed a number of divisions within the Republican Party. Well, how is that all going to play out? Are we going to see key elites throw up their hands and say, you know what, there's nothing we can do. We have to get fully behind Trump. Are we going to see all of these nominations of some of these bizarre and inexperienced nominees go through in the Senate?

We've already witnessed a number of divisions within the Republican Party. Well, how is that all going to play out? Are we going to see key elites throw up their hands and say, you know what, there's nothing we can do. We have to get fully behind Trump. Are we going to see all of these nominations of some of these bizarre and inexperienced nominees go through in the Senate?

Or are we going to see intense divide play out? And from the perspective of the democracy expert over here, we want the Republican Party to be more divided. We want to see some sort of thorough discussion of some of these things. So that's like probably the first thing on the horizon.

Or are we going to see intense divide play out? And from the perspective of the democracy expert over here, we want the Republican Party to be more divided. We want to see some sort of thorough discussion of some of these things. So that's like probably the first thing on the horizon.

And then moving forward, the additional things to look at are the way in which the Trump administration engages with the judiciary. So are we going to see any efforts to mess with the judiciary in ways that ensure more loyalists are within key courts? And then are we also going to see further attacks on the media and efforts to silence and sideline the media?

And then moving forward, the additional things to look at are the way in which the Trump administration engages with the judiciary. So are we going to see any efforts to mess with the judiciary in ways that ensure more loyalists are within key courts? And then are we also going to see further attacks on the media and efforts to silence and sideline the media?

I guess I should mention a third thing as well. Trump has made some statements that he intends to go after some of his political opponents once he gets power. Are we going to see that play out? Those are the key things in the authoritarian playbook that we're used to seeing. And are we going to see him go after Liz Cheney, let's say? Those would be some red flags to look for in the years to come.

I guess I should mention a third thing as well. Trump has made some statements that he intends to go after some of his political opponents once he gets power. Are we going to see that play out? Those are the key things in the authoritarian playbook that we're used to seeing. And are we going to see him go after Liz Cheney, let's say? Those would be some red flags to look for in the years to come.

You know, yeah, that's a great question. And there is not a lot of research on successful opposition movements to Democratic backsliding. This is kind of a new field. So we don't have a strong sense of what the core features are of opposition groups that are successful in pushing back against backsliding. But there are a couple of things that we know that one of which might be fairly obvious.

You know, yeah, that's a great question. And there is not a lot of research on successful opposition movements to Democratic backsliding. This is kind of a new field. So we don't have a strong sense of what the core features are of opposition groups that are successful in pushing back against backsliding. But there are a couple of things that we know that one of which might be fairly obvious.

So where opposition parties are divided, they're going to be less likely to be successful in pushing back. And it's important to note that oftentimes the very attacks on democracy that the leader is pursuing can split the opposition because it can create all this uncertainty in terms of how to respond, kind of what you're mentioning here with the Democratic Party.

So where opposition parties are divided, they're going to be less likely to be successful in pushing back. And it's important to note that oftentimes the very attacks on democracy that the leader is pursuing can split the opposition because it can create all this uncertainty in terms of how to respond, kind of what you're mentioning here with the Democratic Party.