Ezra Klein

You would not predict the conversation we are currently having, which is a once-in-a-generation geopolitical crisis that has created the nightmare scenario for global energy supply, which is the closing of the most important choke point for global energy supply.

I have people like you saying the scale of the current shock is extraordinary.

Something seems off here.

Either it seems the market is not correctly pricing in the risk that is being described by plenty of people in the market.

When I listen to people who lead energy companies and are traders in this area, their hair is on fire.

But this looks not much worse than 2022 in the oil pricing.

So is someone wrong?

Am I misunderstanding what markets are supposed to do in terms of pricing and risk?

How do you explain this?

But it's one thing to know.

Yeah, yeah, no, I get it, yeah.

The measure a lot of people actually see in their daily lives is the numbers when they go to the gas station.

But something I'm hearing a lot about from energy analysts is the middle distillate products, the sort of fuels and the intermediate products that go into other things.

And those actually seem to be going up in cost higher and faster than the price you pay at the pump.

Can you talk me through both what those are and why that is?

If this keeps going for two weeks, three weeks, four weeks, five weeks...

What do you think happens to the U.S.

economy?

What do you think happens to the global economy?

What happens if this begins to cascade?