Ezra Klein

We're done.

But that will leave in place the Iranian regime.

They will declare victory as well.

They will build back up their military, their capabilities, now having done so with the knowledge of what the vulnerabilities of America and its allies actually are.

And so it would be a sort of declaration of victory that I think markets would be very happy with and actually the American people would be relieved by, but also be seen as a kind of failure.

And remember, we had a bombing campaign against them not that long ago, said their nuclear capabilities were obliterated, and then a year later started this campaign because now we say they were only weeks or days away from a nuclear weapon.

So apparently our ability to bomb them into sustained powerlessness is not what one might have hoped.

The other pathway forward is this war goes on for quite a bit longer and possibly including ground troops to take the Strait, to have actual operational control of the Strait and more control over what happens in Iran.

And if that happens, then we're going to have an extended crisis in energy supplies.

If we end up in that world, what are Trump's options then?

For trying to maintain some semblance of stability in American energy prices such that he and his party don't get annihilated in the midterms.

What might he try in a world where this war has a month, two months, three months, maybe even more than that left in it?

Walk me through, I don't know if it, I want to say the nightmare scenario, but one of the more...

concerning scenarios there.

So let's imagine a situation where Trump doesn't decide to attack Iranian power plants, say, and the regime responds by unleashing drones and missiles on regional energy infrastructure.

I mean, you've mentioned with the Strait that what's going on with the Strait is that you've closed a waterway.

So if you reopen it, things can just start moving through it again.

But if you damage a bunch of

multibillion-dollar energy installations.

You can't rebuild those in a morning, in a week.