Faisal Durrani

And the way we know that is because we've done analysis on how much property was resold within 12 months of transacting.

And that's how we define a speculative

So back in 2008, around 25% of the homes sold in Dubai were resold within 12 months of being first purchased.

Today, that figure is down at about 4.5%, Craig, and it has sat at that level for the entirety of this cycle, which is telling us that people who are buying homes in Dubai today are buying them as what we would call a genuine end user.

So be it for personal use or be it for investment reasons.

And on top of that, the slightly more intangible and harder to quantify buyer group that we've seen is the rise in second home buyers or holiday home buyers, which is, of course, one of the key defining features of the market today, which is why we've seen such a surge in the luxury homes market in Dubai, which, as I mentioned to you before, is the busiest area.

in the world and has been since 2022.

So that is why I would say that we are not in a bubble situation and the market is entirely different to where we've been previously.

The best example we've got or the best time period we've got to look at would be what happened before the global financial crisis when the residential market in Dubai was brand new to the world.

And we had that relatively high level of speculative flipping activity taking place up at about 25%.

Ever since then, between 2008 and 2025, it has been on a constant declining slope.

We've never seen it go up to those sorts of levels again.

I mean, even if we look back to the second market cycle in the city, we were up at about 15% of homes being resold within 12 months of transacting.

So it's been on a constant downward slope.

And I think if that starts to tick up, then that would give us an indication that we're seeing more of that trend

speculative investment activity, but we're not there yet.

Thanks, Craig.

Always great to be on the show.

The government has plans to increase Dubai's population to 5.8 million by 2040.

At the moment, our estimates suggest that 92% of housing that is planned will be priced at over 1,000 dirhams per square foot.