Faisal Islam

And that's what's particularly unusual.

And so if you take, for example, heating oil, which is very important, obviously, in rural communities, that's gone up 90.5% in a month.

And that is a record since those records were collected in 1988.

And so what matters isn't just the level of prices, which obviously does matter, but sometimes in the perception of how inflationary situation is, it's the speed.

You know, you look down and you look up and the price has gone up that much.

And that makes people feel, well, this is a shock.

It could be worse, though, I should say, James.

So the petrol, diesel prices combined, they've gone up about 8.7%, highest since 2022, the Ukraine crisis.

But if you look at America, where bizarrely, in a way, you're less cushioned because there's lower taxes, it just means the rise has been 21% on the same measure in America.

which is a record since 1967.

So that would feel worse in the States, even though the petrol and diesel are cheaper.

And I think that that shows, and this is really important, why consumer confidence in America has fallen pretty sharply, which in turn, I think, I was in America last week, is starting to have a sort of feedback mechanism into US politics, which could in turn be determining the extent to which this whole thing lasts, because it affects consumers.

President Trump's willingness, ability to see this situation prolonged.

And at the end of the day, all of this is about how long does the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last?

Yes, but you can have a sort of an overall sense, a vibe, if you like.

I mean, what we've seen now is obviously they've stopped the mass waves of bombing in Tehran and missiles going from Tehran to Tel Aviv and the Gulf capital cities.

You know, that's stopped.

So we're sort of lower overall, I don't know, that famous film War Games, a lower overall DEFCON, right?

So there's karma and you can see it, but this changes by the hour.

So you wake up this morning to the headlines that the ceasefire has been extended.