Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
I think if you try to make by hand hundreds of thousands of Arc tasks, and then you try to multiply them by programmatically generating variations, and then you end up with maybe hundreds of millions of tasks,
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Just by brute forcing the task space, there will be enough overlap between what you're trained on and what's in the test set that you can actually score very highly.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
So, you know, with enough scale, you can always cheat.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
If the world, if your life were a static distribution, then sure, you could just brute force the space of possible behaviors.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Like, you know, the way I would think about intelligence...
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
There are several metaphors I like to use, but one of them is you can think of intelligence as a pathfinding algorithm in future situation space.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Like, I don't know if you're familiar with game development, like RTS game development, but you have a map, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And you have, it's like a 2D map, and you have partial information about it.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Like there is some fog of war on your map.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
There are areas that you haven't explored yet.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
You know nothing about them.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And then there are areas that you've explored, but you only know how they were like in the past.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
You don't know how they are like today.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And now, instead of thinking about a 2D map, think about the space of possible future situations that you might encounter and how they're connected to each other.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Intelligence is a pathfinding algorithm.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
So once you set a goal, it will tell you how to get there optimally.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
But of course, it's constrained by the information you have.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It cannot pass fine in an area that you know nothing about.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It cannot also anticipate changes.