Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And that's working extremely well, actually.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
So that's fascinating to me.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
No, it's not just a technical detail.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It's not a straightforward thing.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It is everything.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It is the important part.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And the scale maximalist argument, it boils down to, you know, these people, they refer to scaling laws, which is this empirical relationship that you can draw between how much compute you spend on training a model and the performance you're getting on benchmarks, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And the key question here, of course, is, well, how do you measure performance?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
What it is that you're actually improving by adding more compute and more data?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And well, it's benchmark performance, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And the thing is, the way you measure performance is not a technical detail.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It's not an afterthought because it's going to narrow down the set of questions that you're asking.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And so accordingly, it's going to narrow down the set of answers that you're looking for.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
If you look at the benchmarks we're using for LLMs, they're all memorization-based benchmarks, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Like sometimes they are literally just knowledge-based, like a school test.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And even if you look at the ones that are explicitly about reasoning, you realize if you look closely that in order to solve them, it's enough to memorize a finite set of reasoning patterns.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
and then you just reapply them.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
They're like static programs.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
LLMs are very good at memorizing static programs, small static programs.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And they've got this sort of like bank of solution programs.