Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And the thing is, the way you measure performance is not a technical detail.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
It's not an afterthought because it's going to narrow down the set of questions that you're asking.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And so accordingly, it's going to narrow down the set of answers that you're looking for.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
If you look at the benchmarks we're using for LLMs, they're all memorization-based benchmarks, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
Like sometimes they are literally just knowledge-based, like a school test.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And even if you look at the ones that are explicitly about reasoning, you realize if you look closely that in order to solve them, it's enough to memorize a finite set of reasoning patterns.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
and then you just reapply them.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
They're like static programs.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
LLMs are very good at memorizing static programs, small static programs.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And they've got this sort of like bank of solution programs.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And when you give them a new puzzle, they can just fetch the appropriate program, apply it, and it's looking like it's reasoning, but really it's not doing any sort of on-the-fly program synthesis.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
All it's doing is program fetching.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
So you can actually solve all these benchmarks with memorization.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And so what you're scaling up here, like if you look at the models, they are big parametric curves fitted to a data distribution, which I call a descent.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
So they're basically these big interpolative databases, interpolative memories.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
And of course, if you scale up the size of your database and you cram into it more knowledge, more patterns and so on,
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
you are going to be increasing its performance as measured by a memorization benchmark.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
That's kind of obvious.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
But as you're doing it, you are not increasing the intelligence of the system one bit.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution
You are increasing the skill of the system.