Frank Gardner

Gulf officials said to me, hang on, a month ago, we got our product through the Strait of Hormuz and we weren't being shelled and bombed and rocketed and droned from the other side of the Gulf from Iran.

And now we are leaving the Gulf in this situation where Iran basically holds all the cards.

That's a very bad situation for the Gulf states and they won't be happy.

So some of them are pushing

for him to finish this, to keep going until eventually the regime collapses.

But that might be wishful thinking.

According to the Israelis, he was directly responsible for this blockade. The problem is with all these assassinations that have taken place during this war is that these people are replaceable. Once a policy is laid down, there is a degree of autonomy and redundancy built into the Iranian system. That's what the Revolutionary Guards Corps have done. In Iran, it's almost like you've got two parallel militaries. You've got the conventional military, and then you've got the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

And some years ago, the IRGC kicked out their country's conventional navy from the Gulf and said, we're taking over here. You guys can go and do something else, but we are in charge here. And they've spent the last few years practicing and honing unconventional operations. So things like.

Fast torpedo attack boats, drone swans and black ops sneaking up and attaching limpet mines to tankers, things like that, as well as boarding and hijacking essentially tankers. So he will certainly have been involved in much of that, but he's replaceable. Malaysia says Iran has let one of its tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Are other ships getting through?

They are, yes. Not most of them. I mean, this is the problem, is that Iran is effectively acting like a maritime traffic policeman, deciding who gets to go through and who doesn't. And they are still exporting their own oil over a million barrels of oil a day.

Kiitos.

Mutta melkein kuukauden jälkeen, kun Israelin ja Yhdysvallojen airstrokeilla on vahvistettu, Iran on tullut vahvistuneena ja ei ole halunnut kompromisoida. Ja he ovat melkein tyhjentävästi ja vahvistavasti sopivat strategisen ekonomisen kartan, tietäen, että vaikka heillä on vahvempi sääntö, heillä on geografia ja aikaa heidän puolestaan.

Yes, I am. I mean, there's a definite hardening of views here in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Because those are the countries that are getting hit nightly by drones and ballistic missiles. And this is the attitude of all the Gulf Arab states. They didn't support the war and they certainly didn't give any overt assistance to the US or Israel financially.

Mutta Gulf Arab Statesin tuntemus on se, että he ovat olleet epäonnistuneellisesti vahvistuneet johtajan kanssa ja he ovat erittäin yksinkertaisia siitä. Ja jotkut maat, jotka ovat tämän puolen Gulf Arabista, ovat todellisesti yrittäneet nähdä lopputuloksen islamisesta, koska he sanovat, että emme voi elää tämän regiimin kanssa.

Tämä ihminen, jonka kutsumme Mahmoodiin, on yllättynyt siitä, mitä tapahtuu hänen maansa. He ovat yhden ryhmän savaita, joilla on maskeja, joilla on ääniä, ääniä ja moottoreita, jotka koko ajan menevät ympäri kautta. Ja kaikki ovat kotona, rauhoittuneet, epäileviä, satelliittisivuilla, joilla on rauhoitusta ja ympäristöä, eikä internetistä. He ovat rauhoittaneet rautaa, he vahvistavat kaikkia, joita he näkevät, ja he toimivat niin kuin he haluavat.

Hyvää iltaa, Ernest. Vai onko se jo yö? Iltaa, lähiboksi. Yön puolelle kohta mennään. Ihan onnea perheen lisäyksestä. Kiitos. Tilasit verkosta potkupukuja ja haalarin pikkuselle. Juu. Ja unilelun. Mistäs tiesit? No, väsynyt arvaus. Postnord. Tuomme maailman luoksesi. Automaattiin, lähikauppaan tai naapurustosi lähiboksiin.

I think he's spooked by the markets, yes.

I mean, that is the generally perceived explanation for this, because, you know, there's no question that the US has overwhelming military superiority over Iran.

It can hit targets at will wherever it wants.

But the one thing it can't control is geography.