Frank Gardner

The Strait of Hormuz is double shut.

It was never really fully open even on Friday.

The markets got very excited by simply a statement saying it is fully open.

It wasn't.

For a start, the U.S.

naval blockade was still in place, which meant that all ships calling at Iranian ports would be turned back.

And indeed, they have turned back at least 23 vessels so far.

But even on the Iranian side, Iran was saying, yes, it's open, but the ships have got to come a new way that we have designated.

And they've got to be searched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy and possibly even atolls.

I don't think there was. There may well have been discussions, radio two ways over the airwaves that we don't know about, but it's quite significant this, because this was supposed to be a total blockade by the US of Iran's Gulf ports. In fact, of its entire coastline, including Shah Bahar, down further to the east. But two of those ships left Iran's ports of Bushehr, in one case, and Bandar-Imam Khamenei in the other. So either...

The US didn't know about it or chose to let them go for some reason. Now it may be, some are suggesting that these vessels had used something called spoofing. So every ship has something called an AIS, an automatic identifier system. It's basically a transponder that tells people where it is. And you can spoof that by trying to pretend that you're somewhere that you're not.

Meillä, jotka ovat tehneet aikaa keskustelemaan Israel-Palestina-konflikin,

I found that I might be in the middle of Israel and my phone is telling me I'm in Beirut. So these things happen sometimes. Now it may be that that is what's behind it, but either way there is clearly an inconsistency here in this blockade. The big picture, of course, is that this is a game of chicken. It's who blinks first. Will it be Iran? Will it be the US? And there are big pressures on both.

So the US is hoping that it's putting the final squeeze on Iran's economy, that without it being able to export its oil, I mean, you can get a small amount out through the land borders, but it's a fraction of what you can get out by sea, that Iran's Islamic Republic government will finally cave in and agree to America's demands.

Kiitos.

America started this war along with Israel in the belief that their overwhelming military superiority would force the Islamic Republic to collapse or capitulate and it's done neither. Where do the US and Iran go from here? We have analysis from our security correspondent.

Jakob Larsson. With the ceasefire in place, is there now a sense of relief across the Middle East? I asked our security correspondent Frank Gardner. There is, but it's very much tempered with scepticism. I think really this is a case of kicking the can down the road, kicking the problem down the road, because the fundamental gap between the two sides negotiating positions, the US and Iran, is still very wide.

It's hard to believe that the US is going to pay reparations to Iran, which it's insisting on. Is it going to accept, and will its Gulf allies accept, Iranian dominance over the Strait of Hormuz? I mean, Iran has said, yeah, that's fine. For two weeks ships can pass through, but they need to be checked over and it needs to be done in coordination with our own military, the Revolutionary Guards Corps.

In other words, this war has left Iran in a strategically stronger position, militarily weakened in terms of its hardware and the number of commanders it's lost. But if you look at the big picture strategically, it now controls the Strait of Hormuz, which it didn't before. But at least if there is a cessation of bombs falling on Iran and missiles heading the other way, it gives cooler heads a chance to prevail, doesn't it?

Kyllä, se todennäköisesti on. Ja minusta kaikki haluavat, että tämä olisi loppu. Mutta älä muista, että eilen Bahreinin oli rotaantunut yhdysvallan yhdysvallan presidenssi. Se oli voimassaan vahvistunut tai russia- ja Kinaa vahvistunut.